Figure 2: Parameter fits for N-Eu countries:

Observed data (blue circles) for the number of cases per day (X₂(t)) and fits (solid lines) obtained by solving (8) and (9) using the ODE solver ode45 in Matlab. The mean values of the parameters obtained (inset) are from the solid black line and the error bars are from the two red lines. The method used for the fits was to find γ(R − 1) from the exponential rise in X₂ for small t (Appendix A), estimate the peak value P of X₂ (which gives the value of N using (15)) and then vary R to obtain good fits to the data.