Table A Legend:
Table showing a summary of all results for all 9 countries.
| NETHERLANDS | DENMARK | SWEDEN | NORWAY | UK | SPAIN | GERMANY | FRANCE | ITALY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Latitude | 52.133 | 56.26 | 60.13 | 60.17 | 52.36 | 40.46 | 51.17 | 46.23 | 41.87 |
| Population Miillions | 17.3 | 5.81 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 66.65 | 46.9 | 83 | 67 | 60.4 |
| Major City | Amsterdam | Copenhagen | Stockholm | Oslo | London | Madrid | Berlin | Paris | Rome |
| Average Temp Feb.2020 (deg F) | 38 | 34 | 30.5 | 28 | 44.5 | 46 | 34.5 | 42.5 | 47.5 |
| γ(R-1) | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.2 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.195 |
| P | 1,200 | 310 | 500 | 260 | 4,700 | 7,900 | 5600 | 4,400 | 5,600 |
| N | 3,041 +/−203 | 738 +/−37 | 1,214+/−66 | 752 +/−83 | 9,967 +/−211 | 16,524 +/−300 | 12,626 +/−445 | 10,275+/−453 | 11,713 +/−213 |
| R | 3.9 +/−0.5 | 4.2 +/−0.5 | 4.1 +/−0.5 | 3.4 +/−0.5 | 4.9 +/−0.5 | 5.0 +/−0.5 | 4.5 +/−0.5 | 4.3 +/−0.5 | 5.0 +/−0.50 |
| αx 100,000 | 8.40 +/−0.17 | 33.80 +/−0.37 | 17.44 +/−0.23 | 37.7 +/−1.64 | 2.65 +/−0.02 | 2.04+/−0.02 | 2.44 +/−0.06 | 2.79+/−0.02 | 2.08 +/−0.02 |
| γ | 0.066 +/−0.012 | 0.059 +/−0.010 | 0.052 +/−0.009 | 0.083 +/−0.018 | 0.054 +/−0.007 | 0.068 +/−0.009 | 0.069 +/−0.01 | 0.067 +/−0.01 | 0.049 +/−0.006 |
| δ | 0.130 | 0.050 | 0.180 | 0.030 | 0.210 | 0.110 | 0.050 | 0.200 | 0.140 |
| TD | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| TL = 1/γ | 15.3 | 16.8 | 19.4 | 12.0 | 18.6 | 14.8 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 20.5 |
| Tr = 1/(Nα) | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Actual Max daily cases at first peak | 1,120 | 328 | 532 | 282 | 4,751 | 7,902 | 5,596 | 4,482 | 5,644 |
| Model Fitted Max daily cases at first peak | l,219+/−58 | 311+/−16 | 536+/−21 | 265+/−13 | 4,716+/−234 | 7,928+/−393 | 5,601+/−277 | 4,410+/−218 | 5659+/−274 |
| Date when number of daily cases first peaked | 4/5/20 | 4/9/20 | 4/10/20 | 3/28/20 | 4/8/20 | 3/29/20 | 4/2/20 | 4/3/20 | 3/28/20 |
| Nend(P) = Predicted Number of days from 12/31/2019 to pandemic end defined as day Dally Deaths < 5 after first peak | 169 +/− 10 days | 132 +/− 4 days | 179 +/− 10 days | 117 +/− 3 days | 217 +/− 13 days | 180 +/− 10 days | 175 +/− 9 days | 193 +/− 12 days | 209 +/− 15 days |
| Tend(p) = Predicted date pandemic ends = defined as day Daily Deaths < 5 after first peak | 6/18/2020 +/− 10 days | 5/11/2020 +/− 4 days | 6/28/2020 +/− 10 days | 4/26/2020 +/− 3 days | 8/5/2020 +/− 13 days | 6/29/2020 +/− 10 days | 6/24/2020 +/− 9 days | 7/12/2020 +/− 12 days | 7/28/2020 +/− 15 days |
| Nend(A) = Actual number of days after first peak when Daily Deaths < 5 | 168 | 131 | 207 | 119 | 233 | 180 | 195 | 207 | 214 |
| Tend(A) = Actual date after first peak when Daily Deaths < 5 | 6/17/20 | 5/10/20 | 7/26/20 | 4/28/20 | 8/21/20 | 6/29/20 | 7/14/20 | 7/19/20 | 8/2/20 |
| Predicted Cases upto Tend(P) | 45,015 +/−5,413 | 10,645+/−1,199 | 22,799 +/−2,657 | 7,844+/−881 | 183,393+/−20,530 | 242,705+/−26,975 | 181,375 +/−20,844 | 151,738 +/−17,726 | 238,163 +/−26,426 |
| Actual Cases upto Tend(A) | 48,921 | 10,306 | 75,228 | 7,382 | 320,301 | 248,240 | 198,770 | 179,059 | 247,164 |
| Predicted Deaths upto Tend(P) | 5,852 +/− 704 | 533 +/− 60 | 4,104 +/− 479 | 236 +/− 27 | 38,513+/− 4,312 | 26,698 +/− 2,968 | 9,069 +/− 1,043 | 30,348 +/− 3,546 | 33,343 +/− 3,705 |
| Actual Deaths upto Tend(A) | 6,066 | 515 | 5,732 | 192 | 41,384 | 28,340 | 9,062 | 30,180 | 35,134 |
| Predicted Cases/Million population upto Tend(P) | 2602 +/− 313 | 1832 +/− 206 | 2235 +/− 260 | 1453 +/−163 | 2752 +/− 308 | 5175 +/− 575 | 2185 +/− 251 | 2265 +/− 265 | 3943 +/− 438 |
| Actual Cases/Million population upto Tend(A) | 2,828 | 1,774 | 7,375 | 1,367 | 4,806 | 5,293 | 2,395 | 2,673 | 4,092 |
| Predicted CFR (deaths/million) upto Tend(P) | 338 +/− 41 | 92 +/− 10 | 402 +/− 47 | 44+/− 5 | 578 +/− 65 | 569 +/− 63 | 109 +/− 13 | 453 +/− 53 | 552 +/− 61 |
| Actual CFR (deaths/million) upto Tend(A) | 351 | 89 | 562 | 36 | 621 | 604 | 109 | 450 | 582 |