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[Preprint]. 2020 Apr 24:2020.04.20.20073338. [Version 1] doi: 10.1101/2020.04.20.20073338

Figure 2. Impact of abrupt changes in testing practices on Rt estimation based on simulated data.

Figure 2.

The cumulative number of confirmed cases (blue), individuals tested (red), and “true” infections (dashed black line) are plotted on the log10 scale for days 20 to 60 of the simulated epidemic (left), along with the percent of tests positive (purple, middle) and the estimated time-varying reproductive number (Rt, right) for the true cases (black) and confirmed cases (green). (A) The fraction of true cases detected and reported increases from 5% to 15% on day 40. (B) The fraction of true cases detected and reported decreases from 15% to 5% on day 40. (C) The testing capacity increases from 0.2 individuals per case to 0.8 individuals per case on day 40. (D) The testing ratio decreases from 0.8 individuals per case to 0.2 individuals per case on day 40. (E) The mean reporting delay increases from 6.6 days to 13.2 days on day 40. (F) The mean reporting delay decreases from 6.6 days to 3.3 days on day 40.