Table A4.

The dataset of Emilia-Romagna (Bologna) according to results of MLR, [100,101].

X1, Average Temperature, °C	X2, Humidity, %	X3, Wind, km/h	X4, Positive Cases up to 14 Days before	X4 new (Urban Parameter) *	Y, Confirmed Cases
[Shifted 8 days (17-Feb to 16-Mar)]	[Shifted 6 days (19-Feb to 18-Mar)]	[Shifted 8 days (17-Feb to 16-Mar)]	[Shifted 3 days (22-Feb to1-Mar)]	[Shifted 3 days (22-Feb to1-Mar)]	[25-Feb to 24-Mar]
8.8	83.3	5.6	2	398	8
11.5	72.9	6.5	9	1791	21
10.2	74	6.3	18	3582	50
8.0	74.2	7.6	26	5174	48
9	73.2	4.3	47	9353	72
7.2	77.6	5.3	97	19303	68
8.8	84.3	7.4	145	28855	50
10	69.6	4.9	217	43183	85
9.8	33.6	5.8	285	56715	124
11.2	37.8	10.2	335	66665	154
8.6	36.1	20.8	420	83580	172
10.5	66.2	19.1	544	108256	140
8.6	90.5	7.2	698	138902	170
10	82.8	12	870	173130	206
6.2	84.9	7.9	1008	200592	147
10.3	69	14.1	1171	233029	206
7.5	82.5	9.7	1368	272232	208
7.5	81.3	8.1	1507	299893	316
8.5	74.3	13.9	1692	336708	381
8.7	59.9	10.6	1850	368150	449
8.8	70.6	6.7	2118	421482	429
8.6	62.9	7.6	2427	482973	409
8.1	61.7	7.4	2808	558792	594
9.1	74	6.3	3187	634213	689
11.5	79.6	8.1	3511	698689	754
13	71.1	5.1	3981	792219	737
13.2	56.4	9	4516	898684	850
9.2	54.4	8.3	5098	1014502	980
7.6	59	6.7	5695	1133305	719

* Urban parameter is population density * positive cases up to 14 days before. $y=-64.970+14.653{\mathrm{x}}_1-0.327{\mathrm{x}}_2+1.616{\mathrm{x}}_3+0.162{\mathrm{x}}_4$, R² = 0.94.