Table 3.
Associations between potential risk factors (PAFs) and sickness absence due to a shoulder lesion
| Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||||||||
| All | Men | Women | All | |||||||||
| HR* | 95% CI | PAF | HR† | 95% CI | PAF | HR† | 95% CI | PAF | HR‡ | 95% CI | ||
| Age (at baseline) (years) | ||||||||||||
| 30–39 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 40–49 | 2.29§ | 1.71 to 3.08 | 2.02 | 1.29 to 3.16 | 2.5 | 1.69 to 3.69 | 2.12 | 1.57 to 2.86 | ||||
| 50–62 | 4.57 | 3.02 to 6.91 | 5.35 | 2.98 to 9.60 | 3.82 | 2.12 to 6.86 | 4 | 2.62 to 6.12 | ||||
| Gender | ||||||||||||
| Men | 0.33† | 0.72 to 1.19 | NA | NA | 0.67 | 0.50 to 0.88 | ||||||
| Women | 1 | NA | NA | 1 | ||||||||
| Education | ||||||||||||
| Low | 3.07 | 2.00 to 4.73 | 4.38 | 2.38 to 8.08 | 2.06 | 1.07 to 3.98 | – | to | ||||
| Middle | 2.57 | 1.92 to 3.43 | 2.48 | 1.56 to 3.97 | 2.65 | 1.83 to 3.84 | – | to | ||||
| High | 1 | 1 | 1 | – | ||||||||
| BMI (kg/m 2 ) | 0.19 | |||||||||||
| Normal (<25) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Overweight (25.0–29.9) | 1.36 | 1.02 to 1.82 | 1.38 | 0.87 to 2.19 | 1.44 | 0.99 to 2.08 | 1.24 | 0.93 to 1.65 | ||||
| Obese (≥30) | 1.49 | 1.05 to 2.10 | 2.1 | 1.25 to 3.54 | 0.28 | 1.09 | 0.67 to 1.76 | 1.34 | 0.95 to 1.90 | |||
| Chronic disease | ||||||||||||
| No | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Yes | 1.41 | 1.09 to 1.83 | 0.13 | 1.26 | 0.85 to 1.88 | 1.52 | 1.08 to 2.14 | 0.17 | 1.27 | 0.98 to 1.65 | ||
| Leisure time physical activity | ||||||||||||
| Little or irregular | 1 | 1 | 1 | – | ||||||||
| Regular | 0.79 | 0.59 to 1.06 | 0.92 | 0.60 to 1.40 | 0.69 | 0.47 to 1.03 | – | to | ||||
| Daily smoking | ||||||||||||
| No | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Yes | 1.8 | 1.39 to 2.34 | 0.18 | 1.58 | 1.07 to 2.33 | 0.16 | 1.99 | 1.40 to 2.82 | 0.18 | 1.7 | 1.30 to 2.21 | |
| Cumulative exposure to physically heavy work (years) | ||||||||||||
| <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 1–10 | 0.97 | 0.61 to 1.54 | 1.24 | 0.67 to 2.32 | 0.69 | 0.33 to 1.45 | 0.73 | 0.42 to 1.29 | ||||
| >10 | 2.66 | 2.03 to 3.49 | 0.27 | 2.33 | 1.53 to 3.55 | 0.24 | 2.99 | 2.11 to 4.23 | 0.28 | 1.91 | 1.14 to 3.21 | |
| Cumulative exposure to manual handling of heavy loads (years) | ||||||||||||
| <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 1–10 | 1.38 | 0.94 to 2.03 | 1.34 | 0.77 to 2.34 | 1.41 | 0.83 to 2.40 | 1.23 | 0.76 to 2.00 | ||||
| >10 | 2.18 | 1.63 to 2.92 | 0.09 | 1.99 | 1.31 to 3.01 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 1.59 to 3.63 | 0.07 | 0.8 | 0.45 to 1.41 | |
| Cumulative exposure to work with hands above shoulder level (years) | ||||||||||||
| <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 1–10 | 1.13 | 0.75 to 1.71 | 1.45 | 0.81 to 2.58 | 0.94 | 0.51 to 1.72 | 0.86 | 0.53 to 1.40 | ||||
| >10 | 2.26 | 1.72 to 2.98 | 0.14 | 2.74 | 1.81 to 4.14 | 0.24 | 1.93 | 1.33 to 2.82 | 0.07 | 1.34 | 0.83 to 2.18 | |
| Cumulative exposure to forceful hand movements (years) | ||||||||||||
| <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 1–10 | 1.34 | 0.87 to 2.08 | 1.72 | 0.90 to 3.26 | 1.15 | 0.61 to 2.15 | 1.39 | 0.78 to 2.47 | ||||
| >10 | 2.98 | 2.25 to 3.94 | 0.26 | 3.51 | 2.25 to 5.47 | 0.42 | 2.7 | 1.83 to 3.96 | 0.14 | 2.32 | 1.32 to 4.07 | |
| Cumulative exposure to forward bent posture (years) | ||||||||||||
| <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| 1–10 | 1.07 | 0.69 to 1.66 | 1.31 | 0.72 to 2.37 | 0.89 | 0.46 to 1.73 | 0.96 | 0.57 to 1.63 | ||||
| >10 | 1.93 | 1.48 to 2.52 | 0.14 | 2.12 | 1.40 to 3.20 | 0.19 | 1.81 | 1.27 to 2.57 | 0.11 | 1.03 | 0.61 to 1.73 | |
Adjusted HRs with 95% CIs and PAFs.
The bolded values are statistically significant.
*HRs are adjusted for age and gender.
†HRs are adjusted for age.
‡HRs are adjusted for all variables in the table, except education and leisure time physical activity.
§HRs are adjusted for gender.
BMI, body mass index.