Table 4.
Predictors of 30-day mortality in 50 cirrhotic patients at COVID-19 diagnosis.
| Baseline variables | Univariate analysis$ |
Multivariate analysis |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1§ |
Model 2# |
|||||
| HR (95% CI) | p value | HR (95% CI) | p value | HR (95% CI) | p value | |
| Creatinine, mg/dl | 1.803 (1.172–2.775) | 0.007 | ||||
| Child-Pugh score A | 0.275 (0.0788–0.958) | 0.043 | ||||
| MELD | 1.067 (1.027–1.109) | 0.001 | 1.094 (1.047–1.144) | ≤0.0001 | ||
| MELD ≥15 | 5.183 (1.975–13.600) | 0.001 | ||||
| Delta-MELD∗ | 5.689 (2.093–15.460) | 0.001 | ||||
| CLIF-OF | 1.396 (1.204–1.618) | ≤0.0001 | 1.426 (1.122–1.668) | ≤0.0001 | ||
| CLIF-OF >9 | 9.386 (3.349–26.302) | ≤0.0001 | ||||
| CLIF-C ACLF | 1.145 (1.050–1.248) | 0.002 | 1.097 (1.001–1.133) | 0.047 | ||
| CLIF-C ACLF ≥70 | 5.078 (1.916–13.459) | 0.001 | ||||
| Moderate/severe lung failure∗∗ | 2.928 (1.124–7.627) | 0.028 | 1.608 (1.079–2.395) | 0.019 | 1.950 (1.279–2.974) | 0.002 |
Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality and used a significance level of 0.05.
ACLF, acute-on-chronic liver failure; CLIF, European Foundation for the study of chronic liver failure; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; HR, hazard ratio; MELD, model end-stage liver disease; OF, organ failure.
Other variables included in the univariate analysis did not result significantly associated to 30-day mortality: age, sex, aetiology of liver disease, diabetes mellitus, smoking history, HCC history, bilirubin level, albumin level, ferritin level, LDH level.
variation >5 points between last MELD before COVID-19 diagnosis and diagnosis of COVID-19; ∗∗PaO2/FiO2 ≤200 mmHg.
Model 1: MELD, delta-MELD, CLIF-OF and moderate/severe respiratory failure.
Model 2: MELD, delta-MELD, CLIF-C ACLF and moderate/severe respiratory failure.