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. 2020 Jun 8;11:2870. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16676-w

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — Average heatwave frequency (HWF) over the central US for 1930–1937, for observations from Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D; a), and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) simulations, including a five-member Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) ensemble (ATL_HIST; b), five-member Pacific SST ensemble (PAC_HIST; c), ten-member historical SST ensemble (HIST; d), and single-model experiments where the amount of bare soil in 1930, averaged over the central US, was increased from 15 to 30% (e) and 50% (f). Stippling indicates significantly larger HWF values between (b, c) ATL_HIST and PAC_HIST ensembles (N = 40) at the 95% confidence level (see ‘Methods')²⁸, and in (e, f) HWF values outside the HIST simulation range. Contours in (d) indicate the percentage of bare soil in each grid cell over the most active heatwave region in the HIST, ATL_HIST and PAC_HIST members. The climatology period is defined as 1916–1955 (a–d) and 1916–1940 (e, f).