Table 3.
Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for 30-day all-cause mortality
| Models | Predictors | Development cohort | Validation cohort | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUCs (95% CI) | H-L test* | AUCs (95% CI) | ||
| 1 | Age (linear), gender, race/ethnicity, marital status | 0.594 (0.585–0.604) |
0.19 | 0.580 (0.567–0.594) |
| 2 | Model 1 + Charlson index (log-transformed,linear) |
0.609 (0.600–0.618) |
0.91 | 0.600 (0.586–0.613) |
| 3 | Model 2 + length of index hospital stay (5 categories) |
0.619 (0.610–0.629) |
0.68 | 0.613 (0.600–0.627) |
| 4 | Model 3 + BMI, dyspnea, urinary incontinence,pressure ulcer, depression severity |
0.691 (0.682–0.700) |
0.16 |
0.695 (0.682–0.707) |
| 5 (Final model) |
Model 4+ physical limitations, cognitive impairment |
0.707 (0.699–0.716) |
0.49 | 0.708 (0.695–0.720) |
| 6 | No facility-level factor met the selection criteria | NA | NA | NA |
*
H-L test: Hosmer and Lemeshow test (p >0.05 indicating good calibration)