Table 6.
Parameters of the deterministic sensitivity analysis
| Sensitivity analysis | Base case |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Model parameters | min | max | |
| General Starting age | 65 | 85 | 75 |
| Undetected AF in % detected AF | 10.0% | 70.0% | 33.3% |
| Increase in background mortality, AF subpopulation | 0% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Sensitivity Preventicus screening | 85.0% | 100.0% | 91.6% |
| Specificity Preventicus screening | 85.0% | 100.0% | 99.6% |
| Positively validated screening results (after flutter ECG) | 75.0% | 95.0% | 35% |
| Increased incidence of spontaneous AF, AF population | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Prevention Reduction stroke rate with prevention | 40.0% | 90.0% | 70.0% |
| Increased stroke rate with AF without prevention | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| Marcumar proportion in OAC medication | 10.0% | 50.0% | 29.0% |
| Increase in the incidence of brain haemorrhage through VKA | 3.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 |
| Reduction in cerebral haemorrhage through NOAC (compared with VKA) | 35.0% | 55.0% | 41.0% |
| Costs, profits | |||
| Scaling factor screening costs | 0.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Prices OAC after patent expires (actual: 100%) | 40% | 100% | 55% |
| Clawback (rebate granted to health insurers?) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Years until patent expiry | 2 | 10 | 3 |
| Scaling factor stroke 1- costs | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Scaling factor costs cerebral haemorrhage | 0.75 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Scaling factor RSA | 0.0 | 1.25 | 1.0 |
| Discount rate for costs | 1.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% |