Table 2.
Calibration of EpiRisk tool with nine historic outbreaks
| Hepatitis A (Australia) |
Measles (Japan) | Hepatitis A (Italy) |
Ebola (USA) | Zika (Brazil) | Diphtheria (Bangladesh) |
Cholera (South Sudan) |
Ebola (Sierra Leone) |
Lassa fever (Nigeria) | |
| Outbreak characteristics | |||||||||
| Duration | 10 weeks | 8 weeks | 18 months | 12 weeks | >10 months | 6 weeks | 18 months | 19 months | 13 months |
| Cases (suspected and confirmed) | 30 | 161 | 1803 | 4 | 218 931 | 804 | 20 438 | 13 683 | 4466 |
| Deaths (probable and confirmed) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 436 | 3953 | 142 |
| International aid received | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Reference | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 59 | 61 | 62 |
| Country parameters | |||||||||
| Income | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| HE total (% of GDP) | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| The state of peace | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Country’s border | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Physician density (per 1000) | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Hospital bed density (per 1000) | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Population density | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Total country score | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 19 |
| Disease parameters | |||||||||
| Pathogen | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Basic reproductive number | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Mode of transmission | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Asymptomatic stage | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Case fatality rate | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Therapy/drug availability | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Vaccine availability | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Total disease score | 15 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| Overall score | 24 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 33 | 33 | 39 |
| Risk classification | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | High | High | High | High | Extreme |