Table 2.
Low burden | Cardiometabolic | Mental health | High-burden musculoskeletal vascular | High-burden musculoskeletal respiratory | Total | |
Deaths, n (%) | 5277 (11) | 4236 (22) | 1748 (16) | 5246 (44) | 1138 (40) | 17 645 (19) |
Person-years | 189 166 | 71 534 | 39 954 | 34 973 | 9005 | 344 632 |
Deaths per 100 person-years | 2.8 (2.7 to 2.9) | 5.9 (5.7 to 6.1) | 4.4 (4.2 to 4.6) | 15.0 (14.6 to 15.4) | 12.6 (11.9 to 13.4) | 5.1 (5.0 to 5.2) |
Unadjusted HR mortality (95% CI) | 1.00 (ref) | 2.13 (2.04 to 2.21) | 1.57 (1.48 to 1.65) | 5.37 (5.17 to 5.58) | 4.55 (4.27 to 4.86) | |
Adjusted HR mortality (95% CI)* | 1.00 (ref) | 1.46 (1.39 to 1.52) | 1.55 (1.46 to 1.64) | 2.38 (2.28 to 2.49) | 2.62 (2.45 to 2.79) |
Subgroup analysis | Deaths/n | P heterogeneity | |||||
Men | 9 612/57 088 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.57 (1.48 to 1.67) | 1.54 (1.40 to 1.68) | 2.52 (2.37 to 2.68) | 2.60 (2.38 to 2.84) | <0.0001 |
Women | 8033/35 098 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.28 (1.19 to 1.37) | 1.50 (1.39 to 1.63) | 2.19 (2.06 to 2.33) | 2.57 (2.31 to 2.85) | |
Age <65 years | 2800/40 475 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.93 (1.72 to 2.16) | 1.58 (1.41 to 1.76) | 3.95 (3.42 to 4.58) | 3.21 (2.71 to 3.80) | <0.0001 |
Age ≥65 years | 14 845/51 711 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.30 (1.24 to 1.36) | 1.54 (1.44 to 1.65) | 2.16 (2.06 to 2.26) | 2.76 (2.57 to 2.96) | |
Least deprived | 3241/20 339 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.56 (1.41 to 1.73) | 1.64 (1.43 to 1.88) | 2.45 (2.21 to 2.72) | 2.86 (2.36 to 3.46) | |
2 | 3526/19 196 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.46 (1.34 to 1.61) | 1.62 (1.42 to 1.86) | 2.37 (2.17 to 2.60) | 2.58 (2.18 to 3.04) | |
3 | 3560/17 977 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.42 (1.30 to 1.56) | 1.48 (1.30 to 1.68) | 2.39 (2.19 to 2.62) | 2.80 (2.43 to 3.24) | 0.091 |
4 | 3387/15 886 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.35 (1.23 to 1.49) | 1.44 (1.28 to 1.63) | 2.28 (2.06 to 2.52) | 2.52 (2.19 to 2.89) | |
Most deprived | 2489/11 383 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.51 (1.34 to 1.69) | 1.51 (1.30 to 1.75) | 2.40 (2.12 to 2.71) | 2.42 (2.07 to 2.84) | |
Non-smokers | 7226/39 240 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.39 (1.31 to 1.48) | 1.50 (1.37 to 1.65) | 2.24 (2.10 to 2.39) | 2.41 (2.03 to 2.85) | |
Former smokers | 6678/31 326 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.54 (1.43 to 1.64) | 1.73 (1.58 to 1.89) | 2.52 (2.35 to 2.70) | 2.83 (2.58 to 3.10) | 0.069 |
Current smokers | 3493/20 613 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.50 (1.35 to 1.66) | 1.41 (1.27 to 1.57) | 2.40 (2.14 to 2.69) | 2.46 (2.18 to 2.77) | |
BMI <25 kg/m2 | 6133/24 390 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.45 (1.35 to 1.56) | 1.50 (1.36 to 1.65) | 2.31 (2.14 to 2.49) | 2.69 (2.42 to 3.00) | 0.013 |
BMI ≥25 kg/m2 | 9397/58 840 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.53 (1.45 to 1.62) | 1.60 (1.48 to 1.73) | 2.57 (2.42 to 2.73) | 2.53 (2.30 to 2.79) | |
Less than 2 years follow-up | 8475/31 579 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.52 (1.43 to 1.63) | 1.42 (1.32 to 1.53) | 1.98 (1.85 to 2.11) | 2.22 (2.01 to 2.45) | <0.0001 |
Two or more years follow-up | 9 170/60 607 | 1.00 (ref) | 1.43 (1.35 to 1.52) | 1.47 (1.36 to 1.60) | 2.33 (2.18 to 2.48) | 2.53 (2.30 to 2.77) |
*Adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic group, BMI and smoking.
BMI, body mass index.