Fig. 2. African fire response to key environmental drivers.

Response of African fire carbon emissions to the most important environmental forcings is assessed by the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (SGEFA). These forcings include a, e, i El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), b, f, j Atlantic Niño mode, c, g, k leaf area index (LAI), and d, h, l soil moisture. Seasonal cycle of the a–d northern and i–l southern African regional average climatology, with line and shading representing mean and interannual standard deviation, referring to the left y-axis (unit: kg C m⁻² month⁻¹), and response to the corresponding forcing, with the filled and open circles indicating the multi-dataset average and 10th and 90th percentiles, referring to the right y-axis (unit: kg C m⁻² month⁻¹ σ_forcing⁻¹). A missing filled circle in a–d and i–l indicates insignificant multi-dataset average response to the specific forcing. e–h Spatial distribution of the season (number representing each 3-month season, e.g., 1 for January–March) and sign and magnitude (color) of the maximum absolute response to the corresponding forcing. The spatial patterns of the ENSO and Atlantic Niño forcing are demonstrated in the inserted global map in e and f, respectively. In these inlets, positive and negative anomalies in sea-surface temperature are represented by red and blue colors, respectively. The boxes in e–h indicate the geographic location of the currently assessed northern and southern African ecoregions. Only statistically significant responses (p < 0.1) are shown here. In i–l, labels on the x-axis stand for 3-month seasons, e.g., JFM for January, February, and March. The fire-active season is highlighted with red labels on the x-axis.