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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Feb 1.
Published in final edited form as: JAMA Surg. 2020 Feb 1;155(2):148–158. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2019.4917

Table 1.

Summary of Included Studies

Source Study Design Population Sample Size Major Findings Pertinent to This Scoping Review Sources of Funding; Conflicts of Interest
Adhikari et al9 Retrospective Patients undergoing inpatient surgery 2911 A machine learning algorithm accurately predicted postoperative acute kidney injury using preoperative and intraoperative data NIGMS, University of Florida CTSI; NCATS; I Heerman Anesthesia Foundation; SCCM Vision Grant
Artis et al10 Observational Trainee ICU presentations 157 Potentially important data were omitted from 157 of157 presentations; missing an average 42% of all data elements AHRQ
Bagnall et al11 Retrospective Patients who had colorectal surgery 1380 Six traditional risk models used to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality had weak accuracy with AUC, 0.46–0.61 St Mark’s Hospital Foundation
Bechara et al12 Observational Healthy volunteers and participants with prefrontal cortex damage 16 Participants began to decide advantageously before they could consciously explain what they were doing or whythey were doing it National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke
Bertrand et al13 Prospective ICU patients and attending surgeons 419 Clinicians thought 45% of all patients had decision-making capacity; a minimental status examination found that 17% had decision-making capacity Pfizer, Fisher & Paykel; Pfizer; Alexion; Gilead; Jazz Pharma; Baxter; Astellas
Bertsimas et al14 Retrospective Emergency surgery patients 382 960 A app-based machine learning model accurately predicted mortality and 18 postoperative complications (AUC, 0.92) None reported
Bihorac et al15 Retrospective Patients undergoing major surgery 51 457 A machine learning algorithm using automated EHR data predicted 8 postoperative complications (AUC, 0.82–0.94)and predicted mortality at 1,3, 6,12, and 24 mo (AUC, 0.77–0.83) NIGMS; NCATS
Blumenthal-Barby et al16 Review Articles about heuristics in medical decision-making 213 Among studies investigating bias and heuristics among medical personnel, 80% identified evidence of bias and heuristics Greenwall Foundation; Pfizer
Brennan et al17 Prospective Physicians 20 A machine learning algorithm was significantly more accurate than physicians in predicting postoperative complications (AUC, 0.73–0.85 vsAUC, 0.47–0.69) NIGMS, University of Florida CTSI; NCATS
Che et al18 Retrospective Pediatric ICU patients 398 A gradient boosting trees method allowed for quantification of the relative importance of deep model inputs in determining model outputs NSF; Coulter Translational Research Program
Chen-Ying et al19 Retrospective Clinic patients 840 487 A deep model predicted 5-y stroke occurrence with greater sensitivity (0.85 vs 0.82) and specificity (0.87 vs 0.86) than logistic regression None reported
Christie et al20 Retrospective Trauma patients 28212 A machine learning ensemble accurately predicted mortality among trauma patients in the United States, South Africa, and Cameroon with AUC ≥0.90 inall settings NIH
Clark et al4 Retrospective Surgical patients 885 502 The ACS Surgical Risk Calculator accurately predicted mortality (AUC, 0.94) and morbidity (AUC, 0.83) None reported
Cohen et al6 Retrospective Studies assessing the ACS Surgical Risk Calculator 3 Externalvalidation studies assessing ACS Surgical Risk Calculator performance may have been compromised by small sample size, case-mix heterogeneity, and use of data from a small number of institutions None reported
Delahanty et al21 Retrospective ICU patients 237 173 A machine learning algorithm accurately predicted inpatient death (AUC, 0.94) Alesky Belcher; Intensix, Advanced ICU
Dybowski et al22 Retrospective ICU patients 258 An artificial neural network predicted in-hospital mortality more accurately than logistic regression (AUC 0.86 vs 0.75) Special Trustees for St Thomas’ Hospital
Ellis et al23 Prospective Volunteers 1948 Induction of fear and anger had unique and significant influences on decisions to take hypothetical medications NCI
Gage et al24 Prospective Patients with atrial fibrillation 2580 Models commonly used to predict risk of stroke were moderately accurate with AUC ranging from 0.58–0.70 AHA, NIH, Danish and Netherlands Heart Foundations, Zorg Onderzoek Nederland Prevention Fund, Bayer, UK StrokeAssociation
Gijsberts et al25 Retrospective Patients with no baseline cardiovascular disease 60 211 Associations between risk factors and development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were different across racial and ethnic groups Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, NIH
Hao et al26 Retrospective ICU patients 15 647 Deep learning models predicted 28-d mortalitywith 84%−86%accuracy None reported
Healey et al1 Retrospective Surgical inpatients 4658 Behind technical errors, diagnostic and judgment errors were the second most common cause of preventable harm None reported
Henry et al27 Retrospective ICU patients 16234 A machine learning early warning score accurately predicted the onset of septic shock (AUC 0.83), identifying approximately two-thirds of all cases prior to the onset of organ dysfunction NSF; Google Research, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Hubbard et al28 Prospective Trauma patients 980 A machine learning ensemble predicted mortalitymore accurately than logistic regression (5% gain) US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, NIH
Hyde et al7 Prospective Patients undergoing colorectal resections 288 The likelihood of a serious complication was underestimated bythe ACS Surgical Risk Calculator (AUC, 0.69), but the calculator accurately predicted postoperative mortality (AUC, 0.97) None reported
Kim et al29 Retrospective ICU admissions 38 474 A decision tree model predicted in-hospital mortalitymore accurately than APACHE III (AUC, 0.89 vs 0.87) NCRR
Knops et al30 Systematic review Studies about decision aids in surgery 17 Decision aid use was associated with more knowledge regarding treatment options and preference for less invasive treatment options with no observable differences in anxiety, quality of life, or complications None reported
Komorowski et al31 Retrospective Septic ICU patients 96 156 A reinforcement learning model recommending intravenous fluid and vasopressor strategies outperformed human clinicians; mortality was lowest when decisions made by clinicians matched recommendations from the reinforcement learning model Orion Pharma, Amomed Pharma, Ferring Pharma, Tenax Therapeutics; Baxter Healthcare; Bristol-Myers Squibb; GSK; HCA International
Koyner et al32 Retrospective Hospital admissions 121 158 A machine learning algorithm accurately predicted development of acute kidney injury within 24 h (AUC, 0.90) and 48 h (AUC, 0.87) Satellite Healthcare; Philips Healthcare; EarlySense; Quant HC
Leeds et al8 Observational Surgery residents 124 Residents reported that lack of electronic and clinical workflow integration were major barriers to routine use of risk communication frameworks NCI; ASCRS; AHRQ
Legare et al33 Systematic review Studies about shared decision-making 38 Time constraints impair the shared decision-making process among providers, patients, and caregivers Tier 2 Canada Research Chair
Loftus et al34 Retrospective Patients with lower intestinal bleeding 147 An artificial neural network predicted severe lower intestinal bleeding more accurately than a traditional clinical prediction rule (AUC, 0.98 vs 0.66) NIGMS, NCATS
Lubitz et al5 Retrospective Patients undergoing colorectal surgery 150 The ACS Surgical Risk Calculator accurately predicted morbidityand mortalityfor elective surgery but underestimated risk for emergent surgery None reported
Ludolph et al35 Systematic review Articles about debiasing in health care 68 Many debiasing strategies targeting health care clinicians effectively decrease the effect of bias on decision-making University of Lugano Institute of Communication and Health
Lundgren-Laine et al36 Observational Academic intensivists 8 Academic intensivists made approximately 56 ad hoc patient care and resource use decisions per day Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation; Tekes; Finnish Cultural Foundation
Morris et al37 Interviews Academic surgeons 20 Younger surgeons felt uncomfortable defining futility and felt pressured to perform operations that were likely futile AHRQ
Pirracchio et al38 Retrospective ICU patients 24508 A machine learning ensemble predicted in-hospital mortality (AUC, 0.85) more accurately than SAPS-II (AUC, 0.78) and SOFA (AUC, 0.71) Fulbright Foundation; Doris Duke Clinical Scientist Development Award; NIH
Pirracchio et al39 Observational Simulated data sets 1000 A machine learning ensemble predicted propensity scores more accurately than logistic regression and individual machine learning algorithms Fulbright Foundation; Assistance
Publique-Hopitaux de Paris; NIH
Raymond et al3 Prospective Preoperative clinic patients 150 After reviewing ACS Surgical Risk Calculator results, 70% would participate in prehabilitation and 40% would delay surgery for prehabilitation GE Foundation; Edwards Lifesciences; Cheetah Medical
Sacks et al40 Observational Surgeons 767 Facing clinical vignettes for urgent and emergent surgical diseases; surgeons exhibited wide variability in the decision to operate (49%−85%) Robert Wood Johnson/Veterans Affairs Clinical Scholars program
Schuetz et al41 Retrospective Clinical encounters in an EHR 32 787 A deep model predicted the onset of heart failure more accurately than logistic regression (AUC, 0.78vsAUC, 0.75) NSF; NHLBI
Shanafelt et al2 Observational Members of the ACS 7905 Nine percent of all surgeons reported making a major medical error in the last 3 mo, and lapses in judgment were the most common cause (32%) None reported
Shickel et al42 Retrospective ICU admissions 36216 A deep model using SOFA variables predicted in-hospital mortality with greater accuracy than the traditional SOFAscore (AUC 0.90 vs 0.85) NIGMS; NSF, University of Florida CTSI; NCATS; J Crayton Pruitt Family Department of Biomedical Engineering; Nvidia
Singh et al43 Systematic review Articles about CRP to predict leak after colorectal surgery 7 The positive predictive value of serum C-reactive protein 3–5 d after surgerywas 21%−23% Auckland Medical Research Foundation, New Zealand Health Research Council
Stacey et al44 Systematic review Randomized trials about decision aids 105 Participants exposed to decision aids felt that they were more knowledgeable, informed, and clear about their values and played a more active role in the shared decision-making process Foundation for Informed Medical Decision Making, Healthwise
Strate et al45 Prospective Patients with acute lower intestinal bleeding 275 A bedside clinical prediction rule using simple cutoff values predicted severe lower intestinal bleeding (AUC, 0.75) American College of Gastroenterology, National Research Service Award, American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy
Sun et al46 Observational Simulated type 1 diabetics 100 A reinforcement learning model performed as well as standard intermittent self-monitoring and continuous glucose monitoring methods, but with fewer episodes of hypoglycemia Swiss Commission of Technology and Innovation
Van den Bruel et al47 Retrospective Primary care patients 3890 Clinician intuition identified patients with illness severity that was underrepresented bytraditional clinical parameters Research Foundation Flanders, Eurogenerics, NIHR
Van den Bruel et al48 Systematic review Articles about clinical parameters for serious infections 30 Traditional clinical parameters associated with serious infection were often absent among patients with serious infections Health Technology Assessment, NIHR
Vohs et al49 Observational Undergraduate
students
34 Higher decision-making volume was associated with decreased physical stamina, persistence, qualityand quantity of mathematic calculations, and more procrastination NIH, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, Canada Research Chair Council, McKnight Land-Grant

Abbreviations: ACS, American College of Surgeons; AHA, American Heart Association; AHRQ, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality; ASCRS, American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons; AUC, area under the curve; CRP, C-reactive protein; CTSI, Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute; EHR, electronic health record; GSK, Glaxo Smith Kline; ICU, intensive care unit; NCATS, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences; NCI, National Cancer Institute; NCRR, National Center for Research Resources, Acute Physiology, and Chronic Health Evaluation; NHLBI, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; NIGMS, National Institute of General Medical Sciences; NIH, National Institutes of Health; NIHR, National Institute for Health Research; NSF, National Science Foundation; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score; SCCM, Society of Critical Care Medicine; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.