Table 1.

See Wright et al. (2019)

Scenario type	Description
‘Best-case, status quo, worst-case’	This tripartite scenario creates three future scenarios: a best-case; one if we continue current trends; and a worst-case. This may be confusing or misleading for policymakers, as it gives three contradictory potential futures, making it challenging to pinpoint what type of policy is required
Orthogonal futures	This scenario is grounded on a four-quadrant matrix of possible futures (X and Y axis), which represent polar issues to be discussed. It may be too simplistic and overlooks many of the rich nuances required for policy implementation
Dark scenario	Dark scenarios focus on the worst-case possible future. It simply tells policymakers what to avoid, and not how to reach a desirable future
Ethical dilemma scenario	Commonly used in philosophical discourse or thought experiments to identify an issue, but often there is no clear-cut course of action to take
Narrative scenario	This approach tells a scenario in a story-like context. While stories are good to allow reader engagement, they often do not allow for a comprehensive evaluation of the diversity of issues relating to emerging technologies
Policy scenario	This approach incorporates a diversity of stakeholders to illustrate a scenario. It is based on plausible impacts and issues and provides a clear outline for policymakers to ensure a desirable future and avoid undesirable impacts