Table 1:
Summary HIV transmission compartment model parameters*
| Parameters | Definition | Median Value (Regional Range) | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| p | HIV Prevalence | 20.4 (4.3-34.5) | - | Estimated from IBBS data (2009-2015) from Alliance for Public Health6 (Description in the Appendix p.6-7) |
| i | HIV incidence, PWID not on OAT | 0.022 (0.004-0.07) | - | Ukrainian CDC 28 |
| d1 | Mortality rate per year among non-PWID, HIV− | 0.011 (0.009,0.012) | LogNormal | Ukrainian Census 29 |
| d2 | Mortality rate per year among non-PWID, HIV+ | 0.021 (0.008 — 0.037) | LogNormal | Ukrainian CDC28 |
| d3 | Mortality rate per year among non-OAT PWID, HIV− | 0.061 (0.012-0.18) | Calculated | Calculation Based on Sordo et al20 |
| d4 | Mortality rate per year among non-OAT PWID, HIV+ | 0.14 (0.04-0.26) | Calculated | Calculation Based on Sordo et al20 |
| d5 | Mortality rate per year among OAT PWID, HIV− | 0.019 (0.0036-0.057) | LogNormal | Syrex database (Description in the Appendix p.4) |
| d6 | Mortality rate per year among OAT PWID, HIV+ | 0.05 (0.014-0.083) | LogNormal | Syrex database (Description in the Appendix p.4) |
| mrroat | Mortality Risk Ratio: PWID on OAT vs Non-OAT | 3.2 (2.6-3.86)* | Uniform | Global Meta-analysis 20 |
| α | Average number of sexual act frequency per month | 6.27 (1-11.2)* | Poisson | Kiev International Institute of Sociology30 |
| β1 | Average number of injections per day among PWID not on OAT | 0.90 (0.3 — 1.31) | Varied to fit the model | Calibrated to fit the model; validated against ExMAT data |
| β2 | Average number of injections per day among PWID on OAT | 0.12 (0.095 — 0.14) | Beta | ExMAT data (Description in the Appendix p.4) |
| f1 | Probability of sharing needles among PWID not on OAT | 0.16 (0.04 — 0.28) | - | Varied to fit the model |
| f2 | Probability of sharing needles among PWID on OAT | 0.009 (0.0006 —0.02) | Beta | ExMAT data (Description in the Appendix p.4) |
| Voat | Probability of Viral Suppression among HIV+ PWID on OAT | 0.446 (0.11—0.99) | LogNormal | SyReX (Description in the Appendix p.4) |
| vNon—oat | Proportion of HIV+ PWID who attain viral suppression among non-OAT PWID on ART | 0.668 (0.49- 0.77) | LogNormal | Ukraine’s Ministry of Health 31 |
| RART | Proportion of PWID receiving ART among Non-OAT, HIV+ PWID | 0.5455 (0.48- 0.72) | LogNormal | Ukraine’s Ministry of Health 31 |
| THIV | Proportion of HIV status awareness in Ukraine | 0.56 | LogNormal | UNAIDS8 |
Legend: The complete list of parameters are in the supplementary online appendix p.6-7. The following abbreviations are used: MSM – men who have sex with men, PWID – people who inject drugs, OAT – opioid agonist therapy, ART – antiretroviral therapy