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. 2020 May 28;14:1050. doi: 10.3332/ecancer.2020.1050

Table 1. Findings and interpretations regarding peaks of relapses after breast cancer surgery.

Finding Interpretation
Results of computer simulation Early (dominant) peak composed of two previously
unreported surgery-induced relapse modes at 10 months and at 30 months.
Concordant with the clinical observations.
10-month peak 20% of premenopausal node-positive patients undergo
this relapse mode. It is 5:1 node-positive to node-negative and 2:1 pre- compared to postmenopausal.
Avascular micrometastases induced to vascularise
and relapse appears at 10 months.
30-month peak Together the two surgery induced relapse modes comprise 50% to 80% of relapses (increasing with tumour size and nodes positive). Previously inactive single cells are induced to divide and then stochastically vascularise with relapse peak at
30 months.
Late shallow peak
(50–200 months)
The ‘natural history’ of breast cancer. The benefit of surgery to reduce metastases first
appears at 5 years.