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. 2020 Jun 12;6:18. doi: 10.1038/s41540-020-0138-8

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — Predicted progression of epidemic during the first year in terms of a number of infected that test positively and b the % deceased individuals due to the virus; without government action (red), with social distancing at factor 2.2 (green) and with complete lockdown (i.e., social distancing factor of 10; purple). Lockdown measures were taken at t=15 days; hence the curves coincide before this time.