Table IV.

Change in state-level all-cause mortality rates among Black people versus white people and the less-educated versus the more-educated if 1-year lagged, 3-year moving average union density increased from 2015 levels to 1985 or 1988 levels respectively.^a

	Women				Men
	RR	95% CI	RD	95% CI	RR	95% CI	RD	95 % CI
Raceb
Black	0.99	0.93, 1.06	−3.5	−30.7, 23.7	1.00	0.84, 1.17	−6.8	−127.6, 114.0
White	0.96	0.90, 1.03	−10.3	−26.8, 6.3	0.93	0.86, 1.01	−33.0	−69.5, 3.5
Ratio/difference	1.03	0.95, 1.12	6.8	−22.9, 36.4	1.07	0.92, 1.24	26.1	−82.5, 134.8
Educationc
≤ HS	0.97	0.91, 1.05	−12.0	−44.7, 20.6	0.93	0.82, 1.06	−54.8	−150.7, 41.1
> HS	0.98	0.95, 1.02	−3.2	−9.3, 2.9	0.96	0.91, 1.02	−10.7	−28.0, 6.5
Ratio/difference	0.99	0.93, 1.06	−8.8	−38.9, 21.4	0.97	0.86, 1.09	−44.1	−135.3, 47.1

Notes:

^aRisk ratio (RR) and risk difference (RD, per 100,000 person-years) estimates calculated using linear combinations of parameters from inverse probability of treatment weighted log-linear Poisson models with state-level cluster-robust standard errors, state and year fixed effects, and union density*race or union density*education interaction terms. RD is average marginal effect of union density on mortality.

^bModels run on outcome data from 1986–2016. Counterfactual union density set to 1985 levels.

^cModels run on outcome data from 1989–2016. Counterfactual union density set to 1988 levels.