Table 1.

Calibrated parameter values for the two species of interest

	P. flavofemoratus	C. depressus
$p_{TP}$	79%	63%
$p_{FP}$	1%	1%
$c$	187.6	733.1
$E$	1.5$\cdot 10^{-3}$	1.2$\cdot 10^{-2}$
$D$	189.9	173.0
${\alpha }_0$	2.1	3.4
${\beta }_{\text{Temperature}}$	3.6	$-0.5$
${\beta }_{\text{Wetness}}$	3.2	$-0.3$
${\beta }_{\text{Brightness}}$	0.4	0.8
${\beta }_{\text{Greenness}}$	1.54	$-3.61$
${\beta }_{\text{Eastness}}$	$-2.4$	$-2.7$
${\beta }_{\text{Northness}}$	$-2.5$	$-4.0$
${\beta }_{\text{Slope}}$	$-2.7$	1.4
${\beta }_{\text{Forest}}$	$-3.8$	0.1

The fitness function multiplies each covariate by the parameter in the table in the following way (cf. Eq. 4, Materials and Methods:

$$f_i\left(t\right)=\frac{1}{1+\exp \left(-{\alpha }_0-{\sum }_j{\beta }_j{x}_i^j\left(t\right)\right)}\hspace{1em}\in \left(\mathrm{0,1}\right).$$

The first row consists of the parameters meant for the relation between the measures and the model (probability of true and false positives) and the main parameters of the metapopulation model (colonization and extinction rates and dispersal distance). The second and third rows show the parameters generating the logistic fitness function: The second row shows the base fitness value (α₀) and the parameters multiplying a time-varying covariate (temperature and tasseled cap indexes; Fig. 2 A–D), and the third row shows the parameters multiplying the static explanatory variables (eastness, northness, slope, and presence of forest Fig. 2 E–G).