Table 1.

Clinical data, imaging and patient history used for the creation of the score (CIP-DUS)

	Feature	OR (95% CI)	P value	Sensitivity*	Specificity*	AUC/cvAUC	Weight
Clinical data and patient history	Smoker at baseline	OR 2.4 (0.6–8.7)	0.28	22.7	88.9	–	–
	SSc diffuse subtype	OR 4.1 (1.5–11.7)	0.01	59.1%	74.1%	0.67/0.65	1
	Modified Rodnan skin score > 8	OR 9.4 (3.0–29.2)	< 0.01	68.2%	81.5%	0.75/0.73	2
	Pulmonary arterial hypertension	OR 4.7 (1.2–18.7)	0.03	27.3%	92.6%	0.56/0.54	1
	Present digital ulcers or pitting scars at baseline	OR 15.7 (3.3–74.3)	< 0.01	90.9%	61.1%	0.76/0.76	3
	History of digital ulcer or pitting scars	OR 36.2 (2.1–626.9)	< 0.01	100.0%	44.4%	0.78/0.77	3
NC	NC pattern (defined by Cutolo et al. 2000)	OR 18.6 (1.1–326.4)	< 0.01	100.0%	28.9%
	- Early					0.58/0.55	1
	- Active					0.69/0.67	2
	- Late					0.78/0.76	3
	Late NC pattern vs. other NC patterns	OR 1.476 (0.5–4.0)	0.46	50.0%	59.6%	0.56/0.55	–
	Reduced capillary density (n < 7/mm) in digit III of the right hand in NC	OR 9.0 (1.1–73.6)	0.03	94.7%	33.3%	0.62/0.61	1
FOI	Missing initial enhancement in FOI in digit III of the right hand	OR 3.9 (1.2–12.8)	0.03	56.3%	75.0%	0.63/0.61	1
	Missing initial enhancement in FOI in ≥ 1 digit	OR 0.9 (0.3–2.8)	1.00 (ns)	62.5%	34.1%	–	–
	Complete disruption in FOI in ≥ 1 digit	OR 1.3 (0.3–5.9)	0.70 (ns)	25.0%	84.1%	–	–
CDUS	Percentage of pathologic (i.e. narrowed or occluded) vessels > 35% in CDUS	OR 4.3 (1.5–12.4)	0.01	68.2%	66. 7%	0.67/0.64	1
	≥ 1 pathologic vessel in CDUS in in digit III of the right hand	OR 3.8 (1.0–14.6)	0.05	90.9	28.3	–	–

AUC area under curve estimated in the source sample, cvAUC area under curve estimated by k-fold cross-validation, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, NC nailfold capillaroscopy, FOI fluorescence optical imaging, CDUS colour Doppler ultrasound

*Sensitivity and specificity were only calculated for parameters included in the CIP-DUS