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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Jun 15.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Mar;8(3):e440–e450. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30003-6

Figure 2.

Figure 2.

Relative change in incidence and mortality achieved by 2030 compared to 2015 levels for each screening intervention scenario. Intervention scenarios are as follows. Scenario S0: No screening or treatment from 2018 onwards. Scenario SQ: Maintaining status quo treatment of ~150,000 annual treatments from 2018. Scenario S1: One-time screening 90% of the general population by 2030 with 80% referral to care. Scenario S2: One-time screening as in Scenario S1, with prioritisation for PWID and adults (30+ years). Scenario S3: One-time prioritised screening as in Scenario S2, along with re-screening cured and previously Ab-negative/RNA-negative individuals from 2020 (every ten years for non-PWID and annually for PWID). Scenario S4: Scenario S3 with incremental improvements as described in the text. The height of each bar represents the median of 1,151 final model runs, with whiskers indicating 95% uncertainty intervals of runs.