Table 2.
Global number and percentage of individuals at increased risk and high risk of severe COVID-19 by age and sex
|
Increased risk |
High risk |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number in millions (UI*) | Percentage (UI*) | Number per population | Number in millions (UI*) | Percentage (UI*) | Number per population | |
| Both sexes combined | ||||||
| All ages | 1746 (1032–2398) | 22% (15–28) | 1/4·5 | 349 (186–787) | 4% (3–9) | 1/22·3 |
| <20 years | 116 (50–167) | 4% (2–6) | 1/22·4 | 3 (1–7) | 0% (0–0) | 1/916·4 |
| 20–29 years | 134 (70–198) | 11% (7–15) | 1/8·9 | 16 (9–37) | 1% (1–3) | 1/73·6 |
| 30–39 years | 220 (122–320) | 19% (12–25) | 1/5·2 | 38 (20–87) | 3% (2–7) | 1/30·0 |
| 40–49 years | 279 (163–392) | 29% (19–36) | 1/3·5 | 50 (27–114) | 5% (3–11) | 1/19·2 |
| 50–54 years | 163 (98–225) | 37% (25–46) | 1/2·7 | 34 (18–76) | 8% (4–15) | 1/13·2 |
| 55–59 years | 171 (104–230) | 44% (30–54) | 1/2·3 | 41 (22–92) | 11% (6–21) | 1/9·5 |
| 60–64 years | 168 (104–224) | 52% (36–63) | 1/1·9 | 39 (21–87) | 12% (7–25) | 1/8·3 |
| 65–69 years | 161 (101–212) | 60% (42–71) | 1/1·7 | 41 (22–92) | 15% (9–31) | 1/6·6 |
| ≥70 years | 334 (219–429) | 73% (53–85) | 1/1·4 | 87 (47–196) | 19% (11–39) | 1/5·2 |
| Females | ||||||
| All ages | 907 (538–1242) | 24% (16–29) | 1/4·3 | 123 (66–278) | 3% (2–7) | 1/31·3 |
| <20 years | 58 (26–83) | 5% (2–6) | 1/21·7 | 1 (0–2) | 0% (0–0) | 1/1390·6 |
| 20–29 years | 67 (35–99) | 12% (7–15) | 1/8·5 | 5 (3–12) | 1% (1–2) | 1/111·3 |
| 30–39 years | 111 (62–161) | 20% (12–26) | 1/5·1 | 12 (7–28) | 2% (1–5) | 1/45·1 |
| 40–49 years | 141 (82–198) | 29% (19–37) | 1/3·4 | 17 (9–38) | 3% (2–7) | 1/28·9 |
| 50–54 years | 82 (49–114) | 37% (25–46) | 1/2·7 | 11 (6–25) | 5% (3–10) | 1/19·8 |
| 55–59 years | 86 (52–116) | 44% (30–54) | 1/2·3 | 14 (7–31) | 7% (4–14) | 1/14·2 |
| 60–64 years | 86 (53–114) | 52% (36–63) | 1/1·9 | 13 (7–30) | 8% (5–17) | 1/12·3 |
| 65–69 years | 84 (53–111) | 60% (42–71) | 1/1·7 | 15 (8–33) | 10% (6–21) | 1/9·7 |
| ≥70 years | 191 (126–246) | 74% (54–86) | 1/1·4 | 35 (19–79) | 14% (8–28) | 1/7·4 |
| Males | ||||||
| All ages | 838 (494–1156) | 21% (14–27) | 1/4·7 | 225 (120–509) | 6% (3–12) | 1/17·4 |
| <20 years | 58 (25–84) | 4% (2–6) | 1/23·1 | 2 (1–5) | 0% (0–0) | 1/694·6 |
| 20–29 years | 66 (34–99) | 11% (6–15) | 1/9·2 | 11 (6–25) | 2% (1–4) | 1/55·8 |
| 30–39 years | 109 (61–159) | 19% (12–25) | 1/5·4 | 26 (14–59) | 4% (3–9) | 1/22·6 |
| 40–49 years | 138 (81–194) | 28% (18–36) | 1/3·5 | 34 (18–77) | 7% (4–14) | 1/14·5 |
| 50–54 years | 81 (49–112) | 36% (25–46) | 1/2·7 | 22 (12–51) | 10% (6–21) | 1/9·9 |
| 55–59 years | 84 (52–114) | 44% (30–54) | 1/2·3 | 27 (14–61) | 14% (8–29) | 1/7·1 |
| 60–64 years | 82 (51–109) | 52% (36–63) | 1/1·9 | 25 (13–57) | 16% (10–33) | 1/6·2 |
| 65–69 years | 77 (49–101) | 60% (42–71) | 1/1·7 | 26 (14–59) | 21% (12–42) | 1/4·9 |
| ≥70 years | 143 (93–184) | 72% (53–85) | 1/1·4 | 52 (28–116) | 26% (16–54) | 1/3·8 |
Increased risk is defined as individuals with at least one condition listed in guidelines. High risk is defined as individuals with at least one condition who would require hospitalisation if infected. UI=uncertainty interval. CrI=credible interval.
For numbers at increased risk, the low estimates were based on a scenario assuming the lower 95% CI values for the age-sex-specific population estimates, disease prevalence rates, and multimorbidity fraction, and assuming r=0·7. The high estimates were based on the upper 95% CI values of the same parameters and assume r=1·0. For the numbers at high risk, the low estimates were based on a scenario assuming the lower 95% CI values for the age-sex-specific population estimates and lower 95% CrI values published by Verity and colleagues21 for infection–hospitalisation ratios in mainland China. The high estimates are based on the higher 95% CI values for the age-sex-specific population estimates and higher 95% CrI values published by Verity and colleagues.21