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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Jun 16.
Published in final edited form as: Environ Sci Technol. 2018 Jul 9;52(14):8027–8038. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.8b00575

Table 2.

Modifications to end-use demands in each scenario. Changes are implemented linearly, starting in 2025. Demand changes specifically represent a change in use, such as changing the thermostat, and not a change in electricity, which could be additionally impacted by device efficiency or fuel choice.

Scenario End-use Demand Demand Change in 2050 Rationale
Conservation All −15% Conservation measures are adopted across sectors, such as adjusting thermostats, turning off appliances, carpooling
iSustainability All commercial −15% Online shopping and telework
Residential other electricity +15% Home offices and gadgets
Commercial trucking +15% Deliveries for online shopping
Busing +15% Increased use of mass transit
Passenger vehicle travel −15% Online shopping, telework, and a transition to mass transit
Go Our Own Way None 0% End-use energy demands are equivalent to Annual Energy Outlook projections
Muddling Through All +15% Trends of increasing per capita travel demand, increasing house size, etc., continue into the future.