Table 4.
Joinpoint trendsa for the most common causes of cancer death,b all races/ethnicities combined by sex and age group, United States,c 2001–2017
| Trand 1 | Trand 2 | Trand 3 | Trand 4 | Fixed Interval 2013–2017 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex/Cancer Site or Type | Years | APC (95% CI) | P | Years | APC (95% CI) | P | Years | APC (95% CI) | P | Years | APC (95% CI) | P | AAPC (95% CI) | P | |||||
| All sites | |||||||||||||||||||
| Both sexes | 2001–2017 | −1.5 (−1.6, −1.5) | e | <.001 | −1.5 (−1.6, −1.5) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Males | 2001–2017 | −1.8 (−1.9, −1.8) | e | <.001 | −1.8 (−1.9, −1.8) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Females | 2001–2017 | −1.4 (−1.4, −1.4) | e | <.001 | −1.4 (−1.4, −1.4) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Children (ages 0–14 years) | 2001–2017 | −1.4 (−1.8, −1.1) | e | <.001 | −1.4 (−1.8, −1.1) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| AYA (ages 15–39 years) | 2001–2005 | −3.0 (−4.0, −1.9) | e | <.001 | 2005–2017 | −1.0 (−1.2, −0.7) | e | <.001 | −1.0 (−1.2, −0.7) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Males | |||||||||||||||||||
| Lung and Bronchus | 2001–2005 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) | e | <.001 | 2005–2012 | −2.9 (−3.1, −2.8) | e | <.001 | 2012–2015 | −4.0 (−5.1, −3.0) | e | <.001 | 2015–2017 | −5.5 (−6.6, −4.5) | e | <.001 | −4.8 (−5.4, −4.2) | e | <.001 |
| Prostate | 2001–2013 | −3.5 (−3.7, −3.2) | e | <.001 | 2013–2017 | −0.3 (−1.6, 1.0) | .60 | −0.3 (−1.6, 1.0) | .60 | ||||||||||
| Colon and Rectum | 2001–200 | −3.6 (−4.2, −2.9) | e | <.001 | 2006–2017 | −2.3 (−2.5, −2.1) | e | <.001 | −2.3 (−2.5, −2.1) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Pancreas | 2001–201 | 0.3 (0.2, 0.4) | e | <.001 | 0.3 (0.2, 0.4) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Liver and Intrahepatic Bile Duct | 2001–2013 | 2.7 (2.5, 2.9) | e | <.001 | 2013–2017 | 0.5 (−0.5, 1.5) | .28 | 0.5 (−0.5, 1.5) | .28 | ||||||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2013 | −1.0 (−1.1, −0.8) | e | <.001 | 2013–2017 | −2.7 (−3.5, −2.0) | e | <.001 | −2.7 (−3.5, −2.0) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Urinary Bladder | 2001–2013 | 0.0 (−0.2, 0.2) | .73 | 2013–2017 | −1.1 (−2.0, −0.2) | e | .02 | −1.1 (−2.0, −0.2) | e | .02 | |||||||||
| Non–Hodgkin Lymphoma | 2001–2006 | −3.0 (−3.7, −2.4) | e | <.001 | 2006–2017 | −2.0 (−2.1, −1.8) | e | <.001 | −2.0 (−2.1, −1.8) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Esophagus | 2001–2006 | 0.0 (−0.7, 0.7) | .96 | 2006–2017 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) | e | <.001 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) | e | <.001 | |||||||||
| Kidney and Renal Pelvis | 2001–2006 | −1.4 (−1.7, −1.0) | e | <.001 | 2006–2015 | −0.5 (−0.7, −0.3) | e | <.001 | 2015–2017 | −4.3 (−5.7, −3.0) | e | <.001 | −2.4 (−3.0, −1.8) | e | <.001 | ||||
| Brain and Other Nervous System | 2001–2006 | −1.3 (−2.4, −0.1) | e | .03 | 2006–2017 | 0.4 (0.1, 0.8) | e | .01 | 0.4 (0.1, 0.8) | e | .01 | ||||||||
| Myeloma | 2001–2017 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.7) | e | <.001 | −0.9 (−1.1, −0.7) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Stomach | 2001–2006 | −3.7 (−4.5, −2.9) | e | <.001 | 2006–2017 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.2) | e | <.001 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.2) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Oral Cavity and Pharynx | 2001–2009 | −1.4 (−2.0, −0.8) | e | <.001 | 2009–2017 | 1.0 (0.5, 1.5) | e | .002 | 1.0 (0.5, 1.5) | e | .002 | ||||||||
| Melanoma of the Skin | 2001–2009 | 1.0 (0.5, 1.6) | e | .002 | 2009–2014 | −1.4 (−2.8, 0.0) | .06 | 2014–2017 | −7.6 (−9.8, −5.3) | e | <.001 | −6.1 (−7.6, −4.5) | e | <.001 | |||||
| Non–Melanoma Skin | 2001–2004 | −1.4 (−5.6, 3.0) | .46 | 2004–2012 | 1.6 (0.5, 2.7) | e | .01 | 2012–2015 | 4.2 (−2.8, 11.7) | .20 | 2015–2017 | −2.8 (−9.0, 3.9) | .34 | 0.7 (−3.1, 4.6) | .73 | ||||
| Larynx | 2001–2017 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.3) | e | <.001 | −2.5 (−2.7, −2.3) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Soft Tissue including Heart | 2001–2017 | 0.5 (0.3, 0.8) | e | .001 | 0.5 (0.3, 0.8) | e | .001 | ||||||||||||
| Bones and Joints | 2001–2017 | 0.4 (−0.1, 0.8) | .08 | 0.4 (−0.1, 0.8) | .08 | ||||||||||||||
| Females | |||||||||||||||||||
| Lung and Bronchus | 2001–2007 | −0.5 (−0.9, −0.2) | e | .004 | 2007–2014 | −2.0 (−2.3, −1.7) | e | <.001 | 2014–2017 | −4.2 (−5.1, −3.3) | e | <.001 | −3.7 (−4.3, −3.1) | e | <.001 | ||||
| Breast | 2001–2003 | −1.6 (−2.2, −0.9) | e | .001 | 2003–2007 | −2.3 (−2.6, −1.9) | e | <.001 | 2007–2013 | −1.6 (−1.8, −1.5) | e | <.001 | 2013–2017 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) | e | <.001 | −1.2 (−1.4, −1.0) | e | <.001 |
| Colon and Rectum | 2001–2012 | −2.9 (−3.1, −2.7) | e | <.001 | 2012–2017 | −1.6 (−2.3, −0.8) | e | .001 | −1.6 (−2.3, −0.8) | e | .001 | ||||||||
| Pancreas | 2001–2017 | 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) | e | .001 | 0.2 (0.1, 0.3) | e | .001 | ||||||||||||
| Ovary | 2001–2005 | −1.1 (−1.9, −0.2) | e | .02 | 2005–2017 | −2.3 (−2.5, −2.2) | e | <.001 | −2.3 (−2.5, −2.2) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Corpus and Uterus, NOS | 2001–2008 | 0.1 (−0.4, 0.7) | .58 | 2008–2017 | 2.1 (1.7, 2.4) | e | <.001 | 2.1 (1.7, 2.4) | e | <.001 | |||||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2017 | −1.3 (−1.5, −1.2) | e | <.001 | −1.3 (−1.5, −1.2) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Non–Hodgkin Lymphoma | 2001–2005 | −3.6 (−4.5, −2.8) | e | <.001 | 2005–2017 | −2.6 (−2.8, −2.5) | e | <.001 | −2.6 (−2.8, −2.5) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Liver and Intrahepatic Bile Duct | 2001–2004 | 2.8 (1.0, 4.5) | e | .008 | 2004–2008 | 0.5 (−1.1, 2.1) | .46 | 2008–2012 | 3.6 (2.1, 5.2) | e | .001 | 2012–2017 | 1.6 (1.0, 2.2) | e | .001 | 1.6 (1.0, 2.2) | e | .001 | |
| Brain and Other Nervous System | 2001–2006 | −1.2 (−2.1, −0.2) | e | .02 | 2006–2017 | 0.5 (0.2, 0.8) | e | .003 | 0.5 (0.2, 0.8) | e | .003 | ||||||||
| Myeloma | 2001–2009 | −2.5 (−3.0, −2.0) | e | <.001 | 2009–2012 | 1.7 (−3.2, 6.8) | .46 | 2012–2017 | −1.9 (−3.0, −0.9) | e | .003 | −1.9 (−3.0, −0.9) | e | .003 | |||||
| Kidney and Renal Pelvis | 2001–2017 | −1.4 (−1.6, −1.3) | e | <.001 | −1.4 (−1.6, −1.3) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Cervix Uteri | 2001–2004 | −3.0 (−5.1, −0.8) | e | .01 | 2004–2017 | −0.7 (−0.9, −0.4) | e | <.001 | −0.7 (−0.9, −0.4) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Stomach | 2001–2008 | −3.0 (−3.5, −2.5) | e | <.001 | 2008–2017 | −1.8 (−2.2, −1.4) | e | <.001 | −1.8 (−2.2, −1.4) | e | <.001 | ||||||||
| Urinary Bladder | 2001–2017 | −0.5 (−0.7, −0.4) | e | <.001 | −0.5 (−0.7, −0.4) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Melanoma of the Skin | 2001–2013 | −0.4 (−0.9, 0.1) | .08 | 2013–2017 | −6.3 (−8.6, −3.8) | e | <.001 | −6.3 (−8.6, −3.8) | e | <.001 | |||||||||
| Esophagus | 2001–2017 | −1.6 (−1.8, −1.4) | e | <.001 | −1.6 (−1.8, −1.4) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Oral Cavity and Pharynx | 2001–2013 | −1.4 (−1.9, −0.9) | e | <.001 | 2013–2017 | 1.4 (−1.4, 4.3) | .31 | 1.4 (−1.4, 4.3) | .31 | ||||||||||
| Soft Tissue including Heart | 2001–2017 | 0.2 (0.0, 0.3) | e | .02 | 0.2 (0.0, 0.3) | e | .02 | ||||||||||||
| Gallbladder | 2001–2017 | −1.2 (−1.5, −0.8) | e | <.001 | −1.2 (−1.5, −0.8) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Children | |||||||||||||||||||
| Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2017 | −0.2 (−0.7, 0.2) | .27 | −0.2 (−0.7, 0.2) | .27 | ||||||||||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2017 | −2.8 (−3.5, −2.2) | e | <.001 | −2.8 (−3.5, −2.2) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| AYA | |||||||||||||||||||
| Female Breast | 2001–2010 | −3.2 (−4.1, −2.3) | e | <.001 | 2010–2017 | 0.6 (−0.8, 2.1) | .36 | 0.6 (−0.8, 2.1) | .36 | ||||||||||
| Brain and other nervous system | 2001–2017 | −0.2 (−0.7, 0.3) | .36 | −0.2 (−0.7, 0.3) | .36 | ||||||||||||||
| Leukemia | 2001–2017 | −2.2 (−2.6, −1.8) | e | <.001 | −2.2 (−2.6, −1.8) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
| Colon and rectum | 2001–2017 | 0.9 (0.5, 1.3) | e | <.001 | 0.9 (0.5, 1.3) | e | <.001 | ||||||||||||
Abbreviations: AAPC, average annual percent change; APC, annual percent change; AYA, adolescents and young adults; CI, confidence interval; NCHS, National Center for Health Statistics; NOS, not otherwise specified.
Joinpoint models with up to three joinpoints are based on rates per 100,000 persons, age standardized to the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups - Census P25–1130). Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 4.7.0.0. February 2019, Statistical Research and Applications Branch, National Cancer Institute.
Cancers are listed in descending rank order of sex-specific, age-adjusted death rates for 2013–2017 for all racial/ethnic groups combined. More than 15 cancers may appear males and females to include the top 15 cancers in each racial/ethnic group.
Based on data from the National Center for Health Statistics public-use data file for the total United States, 2001–2017.
The AAPC is the weighted average of the APCs over the fixed interval 2013–2017 using the underlying Joinpoint model for the period of 2001–2017.
The APC or AAPC is statistically significantly different from zero (P < .05). Two-sided statistical significance for APC was determined using a t-test and for AAPC using a t-test when the AAPC lay entirely within the last joinpoint segment or a z-test when the AAPC extended beyond the last joinpoint segment.