. 2020 Jun 12;81(3):331–338. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2020.81.331

Table 2.

Odds of alcohol tax changes, and inflation-adjusted magnitude of each tax change per standard drink, per 10-year increment from the earliest to the latest time period for beer, distilled spirits, and wine, 1934–2018

Variable	Odds of increasing the tax [95% CI]	Odds of decreasing the tax [95% CI]^d^,^e	Magnitude of each increase per standard drink ($)^f	Magnitude of each decrease per standard drink ($)^d^,^f
Beer
All states	0.85	0.95	-0.011	-0.010
	[0.80, 0.91]	[0.77, 1.18]	[-0.016, -0.008]	[-0.021, -0.001]
States without	0.88	0.93	-0.013	-0.010
alcohol ad	[0.83, 0.95]	[0.73, 1.17]	[-0.019, -0.008]	[-0.020, -0.001]
valorem taxes^a
Spirits
All license states	0.82	1.11	-0.011	-0.033
	[0.77, 0.87]	[0.92, 1.34]	[-0.015, -0.008]	[-0.059, -0.008]
States without	0.87	0.98	-0.011	-0.045
alcohol ad	[0.82, 0.92]	[0.70, 1.39]	[-0.016, -0.006]	[-0.066, -0.023]
valorem taxes^b
Wine
All license states	0.87	0.73	-0.011	-0.020
	[0.80, 0.94]	[0.59, 0.89]	[-0.015, -0.007]	[-0.028, -0.012]
States without	0.93	0.70	-0.009	-0.020
alcohol ad	[0.87, 1.02]	[0.54, 0.90]	[-0.012, -0.005]	[-0.029, -0.010]
valorem taxes^c

Notes: CI = confidence interval. Odds ratios < 1 indicate reduced likelihood of a tax increase over each progressive decade. Negative values for magnitude of tax changes indicate reduced magnitude (i.e., closer to zero) over each progressive decade.

^{^a}

States excluded were Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Vermont;

^{^b}

states excluded were Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas;

^{^c}

states excluded were Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas;

^{^d}

results from tax decreases should be viewed with caution because there were a small number of them: 0.6% of state-years (23 state-years) for beer, 0.5% of state-years (13 state-years) for distilled spirits, and 0.7 % of stateyears (19 state-years) for wine;

^{^e}

many tax decreases for wine were concentrated in the first 5 years (7 out of 19 decreases or 37% of decreases) compared with beer (4 out of 23 decreases or 17% of decreases) and distilled spirits (1 out of 13 decreases or 8% of decreases). In an analysis of wine data that excluded the first 5 years of the study period, we found no change over time in the odds of states implementing tax decreases (OR = 0.92, 95% CI [0.76, 1.11]);

^{^f}

tax changes were inflation adjusted for 2018 dollars and converted from taxes on larger volumes of alcoholic beverages (e.g., excise taxes per gallon of beer) into equivalent taxes per standard U.S. drink, defined as 12 oz. of 5% alcohol-by-volume (ABV) beer, 5 oz. of 12% ABV wine, and 1.5 oz. of 40% ABV distilled spirits—all of which contain 14 g, 17.7 ml, or 0.6 oz. of ethanol.