Table 1. Hospitalized, COVID-19 positive population:

Age and conditional outcome distributions based on data from (CDC COVID-19 Response Team, 2020) that we use for defining the control arm distribution in the ordinal outcome simulation studies. “ICU” represents ICU admission.

Age	P(age)	P(death | age)	P(ICU & survived | age)	P(no ICU & survived | age)
0–19	0.01	0.00	0.00	1.00
20–44	0.09	0.01	0.18	0.81
45–54	0.12	0.03	0.32	0.65
55–64	0.13	0.08	0.31	0.61
65–74	0.18	0.11	0.37	0.52
75–84	0.22	0.17	0.47	0.36
⩾ 85	0.25	0.37	0.35	0.28