Table 5.

Parameter estimates of the transition probabilities for each of the four aggregate states.

	Boom (B)	Expansion (X)	Recession (R)	Crisis (C)
	Job Loss Prob. $f_u\left(Z_t\right)=1-\frac{{\gamma }_0\left(Z_t\right)}{{[1+\frac{{\gamma }_1\left(Z_t\right)}{y_t(s_{it})}]}^{\frac{1}{{\gamma }_2\left(Z_t\right)}}}$
${\hat{\gamma }}_0$	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
${\hat{\gamma }}_1$	0.141	0.256	0.246	0.394
${\hat{\gamma }}_2$	9.354	13.547	11.840	14.644
	Job Finding Prob. $f_E\left(Z_t\right)=\frac{{\eta }_0\left(Z_t\right)}{{[1+\frac{{\eta }_1\left(Z_t\right)}{y_t(s_{it})}]}^{\frac{1}{{\eta }_2\left(Z_t\right)}}}$
${\hat{\eta }}_0$	0.402	0.352	0.285	0.213
${\hat{\eta }}_1$	0.009	0.026	0.113	0.000
${\hat{\eta }}_2$	0.121	0.435	1.187	0.004