Table 5.

Summary of population demographic analysis of alpine Solidago populations in Yakushima Island. Posterior probabilities (PP) and Bayes factors (BF) of models, prior and posterior distributions of the demographic parameters for five alternative models are shown [median (2.5 %, 95 % percentiles) are reported for each parameter]. NM, effective number of migrants

Model	PP	Demographic parameter
	BF	log(NRa)	log(NRb)	log(NWa)	log(NWb)	log(NANC)	T 1	T 2	log (NM)	log (mutation rate)
		unif [2, 5]	unif [2, 5]	unif [2, 5]	unif [2, 5]	unif [2, 5]	unif [10, 3000]	unif [10, 5000]	unif [0.001, 2]	unif [-6, -4]
Model 1	0.469	4.07	3.92	4.11	4.24	2.42	1483	2701	–	-4.89
	1.000	(2.63, 4.96)	(2.76, 4.31)	(3.52, 4.81)	(4.04, 5.13)	(2.02, 3.56)	(1202, 1813)	(1289, 4333)	–	(-5.20, -4.85)
Model 2	0.002	3.97	3.04	3.26	4.15	2.02	1871	2796	1.065	-5.38
	0.003	(3.96, 4.98)	(3.29, 4.51)	(3.59, 4.42)	(3.94, 4.87)	(2.06, 3.20)	(590, 2747)	(834, 4339)	(0.183, 1.972)	(-5.45, -4.64)
Model 3	0.102	4.07	3.92	4.11	4.24	2.42	1084	2178	0.527	-4.89
	0.218	(3.39, 4.32)	(3.04, 4.34)	(3.55, 4.39)	(3.66, 4.60)	(2.12, 3.05)	(717, 1651)	(−41, 5812)	(0.851, 1.163)	(-5.04, -4.77)
Model 4	0.385	4.55	3.79	3.94	4.61	2.44	1138	2745	–	-5.00
	0.820	(3.97, 4.95)	(3.04, 4.27)	(3.26, 4.38)	(4.15, 4.86)	(2.02, 3.14)	(399, 2724)	(850, 4609)	–	(-5.38, -4.50)
Model 5	0.022	3.76	3.90	3.81	4.10	2.30	1045	3229	−0.182	-4.93
	0.046	(2.62, 4.43)	(2.75, 4.45)	(3.27, 4.11)	(3.68, 4.24)	(2.00, 3.15)	(−159, 2289)	(1964, 4337)	(0.775, 1.901)	(-5.23, -4.49)
Model 6	0.021	3.95	3.52	3.92	4.40	2.46	1523	2543	0.354	-5.05
	0.044	(3.44, 4.17)	(3.11, 3.73)	(3.36, 4.42)	(3.10, 5.17)	(1.85, 3.38)	(744, 2395)	(725, 4448)	(0.665, 1.177)	(-5.79, -4.13)