. 2020 Jun 19;23(Suppl 1):e25499. doi: 10.1002/jia2.25499

Table 4.

Summary of HIV‐related outcomes in Kenya ^a

	National	Nairobi region	Central region	Coast region
ART coverage
Proportion of people living with HIV on ART in 2033	68.26%	88.21%	67.88%	87.39%	68.71%	87.50%	63.71%	85.75%
Total number on ART from 2019 to 2033 (million)	37.46 [32.20 to 53.10]	45.86 [38.3 to 62.70]	4.87 [4.20 to 6.90]	5.94 [5.00 to 8.10]	2.78 [2.40 to 3.90]	3.36 [2.80 to 4.60]	2.98 [2.60 to 4.20]	3.56 [3.00 to 4.90]
Additional person year on ART (million)		8.40 [6.20 to 10.10]		1.07 [0.80 to 1.30]		0.58 [0.40 to 0.70]		0.58 [0.40 to 0.70]
HIV incidence (per 1000/year)
2018	0.97 [0.59 to 1.68]	1.09 [0.67 to 1.89]	0.66 [0.40 to 1.14]	1.06 [0.65 to 1.84]
2033	0.72 [0.52 to 1.37]	0.35 [0.28 to 0.59]	0.81 [0.59 to 1.54]	0.39 [0.31 to 0.65]	0.51 [0.37 to 0.97]	0.25 [0.20 to 0.42]	0.83 [0.60 to 1.58]	0.39 [0.31 to 0.65]
% Reduction	25.77% [7.10% to 45.48%]	63.92% [48.29% to 66.06%]	25.69% [7.07% to 45.33%]	64.22% [48.52% to 66.37%]	22.73% [6.26% to 40.11%]	62.12% [46.93% to 64.20%]	21.7% [5.98% to 38.29%]	63.21% [47.76% to 65.32%]
HIV prevalence
2018	3.35% [2.87% to 4.26%]	4.23% [3.62% to 5.37%]	2.65% [2.27% to 3.37%]	3.19% [2.73% to 4.05%]
2033	2.43% [1.80% to 3.78%]	2.33% [1.73% to 3.62%]	2.99% [2.22% to 4.65%]	2.88% [2.14% to 4.48%]	2.03% [1.51% to 3.16%]	1.96% [1.45% to 3.05%]	2.37% [1.76% to 3.69%]	2.15% [1.60% to 3.34%]
% Reduction	27.55% [20.50% to 30.62%]	30.39% [26.58% to 32.33%]	29.35% [21.84% to 32.62%]	31.89% [27.89% to 33.93%]	23.41% [17.42% to 26.01%]	25.99% [22.73% to 27.65%]	25.54% [19.00% to 28.28%]	32.53% [28.45% to 34.61%]
New HIV infections
Total from 2019 to 2033 (thousands)	734.27 [521.75 to 1,261.79]	387.55 [317.42 to 637.93]	87.01 [61.82 to 149.52]	44.87 [36.75 to 73.85]	49.45 [35.13 to 84.97]	25.7 [21.05 to 42.30]	71.28 [50.64 to 122.49]	36.56 [29.94 to 60.18]
Infections averted (thousands)		346.73 [196.79 to 629.64]		42.15 [23.92 to 76.54]		23.76 [13.48 to 43.15]		34.72 [19.70 to 63.05]
Infections averted per additional ART person/year		0.041		0.039		0.041		0.06
HIV deaths
Total from 2019 to 2033 (thousands)	544.61 [449.49 to 619.60]	255.86 [217.87 to 295.29]	69.54 [57.39 to 79.11]	32.82 [27.94 to 37.88]	41.76 [34.46 to 48.51]	21.77 [18.53 to 25.12]	45.13 [37.24 to 51.34]	23.91 [20.36 to 27.59]
Deaths averted (thousands)		288.76 [231.79 to 342.25]		36.72 [29.47 to 43.52]		19.99 [16.04 to 23.69]		21.22 [17.03 to 25.15]
Deaths averted per additional ART person/year		0.034		0.034		0.034		0.036

National

Nairobi region

Central region

Coast region

Baseline

Intervention

Baseline

Intervention

Baseline

Intervention

Baseline

Intervention

ART coverage

Proportion of people living with HIV on ART in 2033

68.26%

88.21%

67.88%

87.39%

68.71%

87.50%

63.71%

85.75%

Total number on ART from 2019 to 2033 (million)

37.46

[32.20 to 53.10]

45.86

[38.3 to 62.70]

4.87

[4.20 to 6.90]

5.94

[5.00 to 8.10]

2.78

[2.40 to 3.90]

3.36

[2.80 to 4.60]

2.98

[2.60 to 4.20]

3.56

[3.00 to 4.90]

Additional person year on ART (million)

8.40

[6.20 to 10.10]

1.07

[0.80 to 1.30]

0.58

[0.40 to 0.70]

0.58

[0.40 to 0.70]

HIV incidence (per 1000/year)

2018

0.97

[0.59 to 1.68]

1.09

[0.67 to 1.89]

0.66

[0.40 to 1.14]

1.06

[0.65 to 1.84]

2033

0.72

[0.52 to 1.37]

0.35

[0.28 to 0.59]

0.81

[0.59 to 1.54]

0.39

[0.31 to 0.65]

0.51

[0.37 to 0.97]

0.25

[0.20 to 0.42]

0.83

[0.60 to 1.58]

0.39

[0.31 to 0.65]

% Reduction

25.77%

[7.10% to 45.48%]

63.92%

[48.29% to 66.06%]

25.69%

[7.07% to 45.33%]

64.22%

[48.52% to 66.37%]

22.73%

[6.26% to 40.11%]

62.12%

[46.93% to 64.20%]

21.7%

[5.98% to 38.29%]

63.21%

[47.76% to 65.32%]

HIV prevalence

2018

3.35%

[2.87% to 4.26%]

4.23%

[3.62% to 5.37%]

2.65%

[2.27% to 3.37%]

3.19%

[2.73% to 4.05%]

2033

2.43%

[1.80% to 3.78%]

2.33%

[1.73% to 3.62%]

2.99%

[2.22% to 4.65%]

2.88%

[2.14% to 4.48%]

2.03%

[1.51% to 3.16%]

1.96%

[1.45% to 3.05%]

2.37%

[1.76% to 3.69%]

2.15%

[1.60% to 3.34%]

% Reduction

27.55%

[20.50% to 30.62%]

30.39%

[26.58% to 32.33%]

29.35%

[21.84% to 32.62%]

31.89%

[27.89% to 33.93%]

23.41%

[17.42% to 26.01%]

25.99%

[22.73% to 27.65%]

25.54%

[19.00% to 28.28%]

32.53%

[28.45% to 34.61%]

New HIV infections

Total from 2019 to 2033 (thousands)

734.27

[521.75 to 1,261.79]

387.55

[317.42 to 637.93]

87.01

[61.82 to 149.52]

44.87

[36.75 to 73.85]

49.45

[35.13 to 84.97]

25.7

[21.05 to 42.30]

71.28

[50.64 to 122.49]

36.56

[29.94 to 60.18]

Infections averted (thousands)

346.73

[196.79 to 629.64]

42.15

[23.92 to 76.54]

23.76

[13.48 to 43.15]

34.72

[19.70 to 63.05]

Infections averted per additional ART person/year

0.041

0.039

0.041

0.06

HIV deaths

Total from 2019 to 2033 (thousands)

544.61

[449.49 to 619.60]

255.86

[217.87 to 295.29]

69.54

[57.39 to 79.11]

32.82

[27.94 to 37.88]

41.76

[34.46 to 48.51]

21.77

[18.53 to 25.12]

45.13

[37.24 to 51.34]

23.91

[20.36 to 27.59]

Deaths averted (thousands)

288.76

[231.79 to 342.25]

36.72

[29.47 to 43.52]

19.99

[16.04 to 23.69]

21.22

[17.03 to 25.15]

Deaths averted per additional ART person/year

0.034

0.036

^{^a}

HIV‐related outcomes are projected by the Spectrum model for the baseline and intervention at a national and regional level. Models are initialized with a similar population in 2018 and are followed to year 2033. The baseline scenario assumes a fixed ART coverage at 2018 levels over time. The intervention scenario models a gradual increase in coverage of ART from 2019 to 2023 [assuming a fixed coverage afterwards, from year 2024 to 2033). Values represents the median value [95% uncertainty ranges]. Uncertainty ranges are estimated across 1000 random simulations (generated by permuting epidemiological and behaviour parameters), weighted and resampled based on goodness of fit to the historical prevalence data(see Section 1.4 in Data S1).