. 2020 Jun 19;23(Suppl 1):e25499. doi: 10.1002/jia2.25499

Table 5.

Summary of NCD‐related outcomes in Kenya ^a , ^b

	National	Nairobi region	Central region	Coast region
NCDs prevalence in 2033 ^c
Baseline:
Untreated hypertension	32.43% [32.40% to 32.45%]	25.94% [25.91% to 25.97%]	47.89% [47.86% to 47.91%]	26.41% [26.39% to 26.44%]
Untreated diabetes	4.27% [4.25% to 4.28%]	9.75% [9.73% to 9.77%]	6.05% [6.04% to 6.07%]	3.4% [3.39% to 3.42%]
Intervention:
Untreated hypertension	27.51% [27.48% to 27.53%]	22.61% [22.58% to 22.63%]	38.73% [38.7% to 38.76%]	22.58% [22.55% to 22.61%]
Untreated diabetes	3.42% [3.41% to 3.44%]	8.43% [8.41% to 8.45%]	4.43% [4.42% to 4.45%]	2.79% [2.78% to 2.8%]
CVD events averted (2019 to 2033)
MI	24,900 [17,900 to 31,300]	1600 [1000 to 2300]	4900 [4,100 to 5,700]	2000 [1,400 to 2,600]
Angina	12,500 [7,800 to 17,000]	1200 [700 to 1600]	3000 [2400 to 3500]	1100 [700 to 1500]
Cardiac Arrest	3200 [1200 to 5100]	200 [0 to 400]	500 [300 to 800]	200 [0 to 400]
Stroke	76,000 [66,400 to 86,100]	6200 [5300 to 7200]	13,800 [12,500 to 14,900]	5300 [4300 to 6200]
Total	116,600 [104,300 to 128,300]	9200 [8100 to 10,300]	22,200 [20,600 to 23,700]	8600 [7500 to 9800]
CVD deaths averted (2019 to 2033)
MI	4800 [2200 to 7500]	300 [0 to 600]	1000 [700 to 1300]	1000 [700 to 1300]
Angina	1,500 [−700 to 3700]	100 [−100 to 400]	400 [200 to 700]	400 [200 to 700]
Cardiac Arrest	3000 [1000 to 4800]	200 [0 to 400]	500 [300 to 700]	500 [300 to 700]
Stroke	34,200 [27,700 to 41,000]	2800 [2100 to 3400]	6400 [5600 to 7200]	6400 [5600 to 7200]
Total	43,600 [3,6400 to 50,400]	3400 [2700 to 4100]	8300 [7500 to 9100]	8300 [7500 to 9100]

National

Nairobi region

Central region

Coast region

NCDs prevalence in 2033 ^c

Baseline:

Untreated hypertension

32.43%

[32.40% to 32.45%]

25.94%

[25.91% to 25.97%]

47.89%

[47.86% to 47.91%]

26.41%

[26.39% to 26.44%]

Untreated diabetes

4.27%

[4.25% to 4.28%]

9.75%

[9.73% to 9.77%]

6.05%

[6.04% to 6.07%]

3.4%

[3.39% to 3.42%]

Intervention:

Untreated hypertension

27.51%

[27.48% to 27.53%]

22.61%

[22.58% to 22.63%]

38.73%

[38.7% to 38.76%]

22.58%

[22.55% to 22.61%]

Untreated diabetes

3.42%

[3.41% to 3.44%]

8.43%

[8.41% to 8.45%]

4.43%

[4.42% to 4.45%]

2.79%

[2.78% to 2.8%]

CVD events averted (2019 to 2033)

24,900

[17,900 to 31,300]

1600

[1000 to 2300]

4900

[4,100 to 5,700]

2000

[1,400 to 2,600]

Angina

12,500

[7,800 to 17,000]

1200

[700 to 1600]

3000

[2400 to 3500]

1100

[700 to 1500]

Cardiac Arrest

3200

[1200 to 5100]

200

[0 to 400]

500

[300 to 800]

200

[0 to 400]

Stroke

76,000

[66,400 to 86,100]

6200

[5300 to 7200]

13,800

[12,500 to 14,900]

5300

[4300 to 6200]

Total

116,600

[104,300 to 128,300]

9200

[8100 to 10,300]

22,200

[20,600 to 23,700]

8600

[7500 to 9800]

CVD deaths averted (2019 to 2033)

4800

[2200 to 7500]

300

[0 to 600]

1000

[700 to 1300]

1000

[700 to 1300]

Angina

1,500

[−700 to 3700]

100

[−100 to 400]

400

[200 to 700]

400

[200 to 700]

Cardiac Arrest

3000

[1000 to 4800]

200

[0 to 400]

500

[300 to 700]

500

[300 to 700]

Stroke

34,200

[27,700 to 41,000]

2800

[2100 to 3400]

6400

[5600 to 7200]

6400

[5600 to 7200]

Total

43,600

[3,6400 to 50,400]

3400

[2700 to 4100]

8300

[7500 to 9100]

8300

[7500 to 9100]

^{^a}

Non‐communicable diseases (NCD); Cardiovascular disease (CVD); Myocardial infarction (MI).

^{^b}

NCD‐related outcomes are projected by the HIV/NCD microsimulation for the baseline and intervention at a national and regional level. Models are initialized with a similar population in 2018 and are followed to year 2033. The baseline scenario assumes minimal NCD treatment. The intervention scenario models an annual campaign for screening and treatment on NCDs running from 2019‐2023. Values represents the median [95% uncertainty ranges] across 2000 random simulations.

^{^c}

See Data S1 for the uncertainty around the number people with untreated diabetes and hypertension in the initial and final cohort.