Fig. 2.

Model prediction (solid lines) and model validation using UW data (dots) for the Chinese province of Hubei. A) TIP (red); active infections (orange); recovered cases (green); and death cases (blue). B) The small trends report the convergence paths of predictions considering the subsequent re-regressions of new daily data: the IPT [day] and AIPP [people] (orange); IED (green) and TIP (red). Chinese government changed the data collection methodology at the infection day 23: this motivates the discontinuity in the trends and the large oscillations in the converging paths in its neighborhoods. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)