Table 2.

Inference results for the four models with maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), 95% confidence intervals (CI), basic reproduction number , 95% confidence interval for , seasonal variability of , coverage of the data by the 95% prediction interval of the full model, (coverage of the data 95% prediction interval only generated by the transmission model), log-likelihood (LL), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and standard error of the Monte Carlo approximations

Model DtSt (LL: 371 713, AIC: , coverage: 8.8%)
MLE	12.659	0.237	0.418	0.151	0.037
CI	[12.658, 12.659]	[0.237, 0.238]	[0.418, 0.419]	[0.151, 0.151]	[0.036, 0.038]
= 1.065 (1.065–1.066),   seasonal range: [0.904, 1.226]
Model DtSt (LL: 10 383.05, AIC: , coverage: 96.2%)
MLE	11.718	0.284	0.477	0.129	0.067	0.221
CI	[11.474, 11.956]	[0.270, 0.298]	[0.454, 0.503]	[0.125, 0.133]	[0.034, 0.100]	[0.205, 0.238]
= 1.052 (1.021–1.083),   seasonal range: [0.916, 1.188]
Model StSt (LL: (s.e. 1.94), AIC: , coverage: 90.6% [only transmission model: 28.9%])
MLE	11.198	0.266	0.450	0.142	0.075	0.150
CI	[10.889, 11.326]	[0.267, 0.289]	[0.435, 0.474]	[0.138, 0.146]	[0.040, 0.109]	[0.143, 0.164]
= 1.000 (0.981–1.031),  seasonal range: [0.859, 1.142]
Model StSt (LL: (s.e. 0.25), AIC: , coverage: 96.5% [only transmission model: 93.7%] )
MLE	11.298	0.267	0.433	0.148	0.085	0.111	0.091
CI	[11.131, 11.531]	[0.259, 0.278]	[0.415, 0.449]	[0.136, 0.158]	[0.006, 0.165]	[0.114, 0.127]	[0.080, 0.106]
= 1.004 (0.986–1.027),   seasonal range: [0.855, 1.152]