Fig. 4.

Best fit of the infection and death curves with the real data freely varying the effective ${\mathcal{R}}_e$ which appears to be $\sim$ 7.4 in the early stage. The color shades enveloping the curves denote variation in susceptible population within a range of $\sim$ 0.8–$1.2\times {10}^6$. The real data considered for fitting are from March 2, 2020. Relevant parameters for the analysis are $\beta =0.257{\text{day}}^{-1}$, $\gamma =0.0315{\text{day}}^{-1}$, $\delta =0.0032{\text{day}}^{-1}$, $\tau =29$ days, $T=7$ days, $\zeta =0.375$