Fig. 7. Temperature sensitivity (γ) of S_net, S_Intact, and E_LUC.

Red color indicates results from ORCHIDEE. Black color indicates results for the bookkeeping and residual budget approach (i.e., IPCC AR5 and ref. ¹⁴). a The temperature sensitivities of S_net (${\gamma }_{\mathrm{LAND}}^{\mathrm{T}}$). b The decomposition of ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{LAND}}^{\mathrm{T}}$ into ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{Intact}}^{\mathrm{T}}$ and $-{\gamma }_{\mathrm{ELUC}}^{\mathrm{T}}$, following the equation “S_net = S_Intact − E_LUC”. Negative values of ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{LAND}}^{\mathrm{T}}$ and ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{Intact}}^{\mathrm{T}}$ mean that elevated tropical land warming leads to less land carbon uptake, while positive values of ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{ELUC}}^{\mathrm{T}}$ mean that warming leads to enhanced carbon emissions from managed land (note that $-{\gamma }_{\mathrm{ELUC}}^{\mathrm{T}}$ is shown in the figure). All linear regressions were significant with a p < 0.05 (n = 57, two-sided p-value). Shaded area in subplot a indicates the 95% confidence interval of fitted values. Error bars in subplot b indicate the standard error of fitted γ values.