Fig. 2.

Impact and controllability, assessed by the median clinical attack rate over the LHS sample as a function of R₀ (transmissibility) and α_m (visibility). (a) Baseline (no intervention) median clinical attack rate. (b) The median clinical attack rate with the antiviral intervention. (c) The mean percentage change in the median clinical attack rate (calculated from the difference between plots (a) and (b)). The median value for the outcome measure (clinical attack rate) over the LHS samples increases with increasing R₀ and α_m, indicating higher impact of simulated pandemics in the upper right region of the R₀–α_m plane (equivalent figures with severity in place of visibility are provided in the Supplementary data). Only for low transmissibility and high visibility scenarios (upper left) is the antiviral intervention able to modify the course of the pandemic (the larger negative values in plot (c)). Note that the narrow horizontal strip at the bottom of plot (c) is simply a boundary effect due to the plotting routine, and not an indication of control in this region.