Table 1.
Peak time/size and elimination time predicted in models.
| First author | Model | Peak time | Peak size | Elimination | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhu | ODE based: SIR model | Still goes up/10 February/middle or late with work/school resuming | NA | NA | Other* |
| Wang | ODE based: SIR model | 10 March | NA | NA | China |
| Wu | ODE based: SIR model | 17 March | NA | NA | Other |
| Xiong | ODE based: EIR model (100% Quarantined rate) | 16 February | 49,093 | NA | China |
| Xiong | ODE based: EIR model (90% Quarantined rate) | 17 February | 51,605 | NA | China |
| Xiong | ODE based: EIR model (80% Quarantined rate) | 18 February | 55,059 | NA | China |
| Xiong | ODE based: EIR model (70% Quarantined rate) | 19 February | 59,953 | NA | China |
| Xiong | ODE based: EIR model (63% Quarantined rate) | 20 February | 64,740 | NA | China |
| Tang | ODE based: SEIR model | 10 February | 163,000 | NA | China |
| Wang | ODE based: SEIR model (R0 = 0.5) | 5 February | 11,966 | NA | China |
| Wang | ODE based: SEIR model (R0 = 0.25) | 4 February | 11,373 | NA | China |
| Wang | ODE based: SEIR model (R0 = 0.125) | 3 February | 11,116 | Early May | China |
| Wu | ODE based: SEIR model | April | NA | NA | Wuhan |
| Wu | ODE based: SEIR model | Mid-February | NA | NA | China |
| Ai | ODE based: SEIR model | 28 January−7 February | 7,000–9,000 | NA | Hubei |
| Peng | ODE based: SEIR model | NA | NA | Beginning April | Wuhan |
| Peng | ODE based: SEIR model | NA | NA | Mid-March | Hubei |
| Wan | ODE based: SEIR model | 19 February | 45,000 | Late March | Wuhan |
| Wan | ODE based: SEIR model | 9 March (2–24 March) | 313,00 (27,700–36,800) | NA | China (without Hubei) |
| Wan | ODE based: SEIR model | 3 March (27 February−18 March) | 63,800 (59,300–76,500) | NA | Hubei |
| Li | ODE based: SEIR model | 10 March (19 February−30 March) | NA | NA | Wuhan |
| Li | ODE based: SEIR model | 31 March (15 March−16 April) | NA | NA | Other |
| Liu | ODE based: Flow-SEIR model | 9 March (2–24 March) | 85,500 (76,700–97,500) | 1.5–2 months from the peak | China |
| Liu | ODE based: Flow-SEIR model | 29 February (25 February−8 March) | 62,800 (56,900–70,300) | 1.5–2 months from the peak | Hubei |
| Shen | ODE based: SEIJR model (isolation) | Early-March (1 March) | 827 (421–1232) | NA | China |
| Shen | ODE based: SEIJR model (lockdown) | 17 February (14–27 February) | 12,143 (5,872–19,852) | NA | China |
| Zeng | ODE based model | NA | NA | 28 February | China |
| Zeng | ODE based model | NA | NA | 10 March | China |
| Zeng | ODE based model | NA | NA | 29 February | China |
| Zeng | ODE based model | NA | NA | 24 February | China |
| Zeng | ODE based model (NN-−1day delay) | NA | NA | 28 February | China |
| Zeng | ODE based model (NN-−2 days delay) | NA | NA | 3 March | China |
| Zeng | ODE based model (NN—no policies) | NA | NA | 28 April | China |
| Batista | Probabilistic/likelihood-based model | 4 February | NA | NA | China |
| Batista | Probabilistic/likelihood-based model | 22 August | NA | NA | China |
| Hermanowicz | EG model | 7–20 February | 65,000 | NA | China |
| Liu | EG model | 4 February | NA | NA | Wuhan |
*
Other regions other than Hubei in China.
ODE, Ordinal Differential Equation; SIR, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered; EIR, Exposed-Infectious-Recovered; SEIR, Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered; SEIJR, Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Isolated-Recovered; EG, Exponential Growth; R0, the reproduction number.