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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Jun 25.
Published in final edited form as: Epidemics. 2019 Aug 5;30:100359. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100359

Table 4. Forecast MAE for test cases varying initial human susceptibility.

Mean absolute relative error is shown in parentheses for Peak Incidence and Total Incidence. ×X1 through X4 indicate forecasts of incidence 1 through 4 weeks into the future.

Range of initial human susceptibility Peak week Peak incidence Total incidence X1 X2 X3 X4
full range (control) 3.3 5171 (.45) 39288 (.38) 1040 1578 2262 2868
0.5 3.4 5162 (.40) 45969 (.37) 1166 1741 2411 2994
0.25 3.4 4810 (.38) 42559 (.36) 1106 1686 2358 2929
0.1 3.5 4953 (.38) 43694 (.36) 1171 1782 2476 3046
0 3.5 5108 (.39) 45468 (.37) 1210 1822 2516 3092