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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Jun 25.
Published in final edited form as: Epidemics. 2019 Aug 5;30:100359. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100359

Table 5. Mean Freidman ranking of forecast metrics for test cases varying initial human susceptibility.

Values in bold font indicate the top-ranking test case for each forecast metric. More than one top ranking test case is possible if ranks are not significantly different. Asterisks indicate mean rankings that are statistically significant improvements over the control case.

Test case Peak week Peak Incidence Total Incidence X1 X2 X3 X4
full range (control) 2.34 3.05 2.93 3.09 3.07 3.07 3.07
0.5 2.34 3.09 3.04 3.05* 3.06 3.08 3.09
0.25 2.33* 2.85* 2.93 2.97* 2.96* 2.95* 2.94*
0.1 2.46 3.00* 3.00 2.94* 2.95* 2.95* 2.94*
0 2.53 3.01* 3.09 2.94* 2.95* 2.95* 2.95*