Table 7. Mean Freidman ranking of forecast metrics for test cases with narrowed prior distribution of parameters.

Values in bold font indicate the top-ranking test case for each forecast metric. More than one top ranking test case is possible if ranks are not significantly different. Asterisks indicate mean rankings that are statistically significant improvements over the control case.

Parameter being constrained	Peak week	Peak Incidence	Total Incidence	X1	X2	X3	X4
None (control)	3.43	4.25	4.23	4.63	4.65	4.68	4.70
αM	3.31*	4.33	4.35	4.64	4.67	4.69	4.71
αH	3.50	4.37	4.33	4.67	4.69	4.71	4.72
γ	3.55	4.83	4.85	4.65	4.60*	4.55*	4.51*
ϕ	3.31*	4.50	4.54	4.49	4.48*	4.50*	4.52*
BH	4.06	5.14	5.21	4.12*	4.10*	4.04*	3.96*
BM	3.26*	4.61	4.59	4.43*	4.42*	4.43*	4.45*
p	3.07*	3.98*	3.89*	4.38*	4.38*	4.40*	4.43*