Table 2.
ECDC HIV modelling tool results, excluding and including CD4 count proxy from Denmark, Norway, 2018
| Population | Number of new HIV infections (95%CI) | Median number of years from infection to diagnosis (interquartile range) | Number of PLHIVa (95%CI) | Number of undiagnosed HIV infections (95%CI) | Proportion undiagnosed (95%CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Using default model assumptions for CD4 distribution | |||||
| Overall | 79 (34–129) | 2.2 (1.1–4.1) | 4964 (4789–5181) | 355 (259–449) | 7.1% (5.3–8.9) |
| Norwegian-born MSM | 9 (5–25) | 1.7 (0.8–3.1) | 1245 (1163–1350) | 45 (30–75) | 3.6% (2.4–5.7) |
| Migrant MSM | 21 (4–36) | 2.0 (1.0–3.7) | 495 (446–568) | 68 (39–111) | 13.7% (8.6–20.1) |
| Norwegian-born heterosexuals | 19 (4–55) | 3.9 (1.9–7.0) | 864 (794–1009) | 134 (81–250) | 15.5% (10.2–24.8) |
| Migrant SSA-born heterosexuals | 13 (5–27) | 1.3 (0.7–2.4) | 1544 (1451–1641) | 35 (21–55) | 2.3% (1.3–3.6) |
| Migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals | 31 (4–52) | 3.3 (1.6–6.0) | 649 (558–737) | 123 (62–180) | 18.9% (10.7–25.3) |
| PWID | 6 (1–22) | 3.1 (1.5–5.6) | 244 (185–308) | 20 (2–64) | 8.2% (0.8–21.7) |
| Using Danish CD4 proxy | |||||
| Overall | 86 (29–143) | 3.0 (1.5–5.7) | 5080 (4898–5262) | 520 (411–627) | 10.2% (8.3–12.1) |
| Norwegian-born MSM | 13 (5–28) | 1.7 (0.9–3.2) | 1239 (1151–1351) | 52 (33–82) | 4.2% (2.6–6.2) |
| Migrant MSM | 16 (4–35) | 2.0 (1.0–3.9) | 494 (445–558) | 64 (36–103) | 13.0% (8.4–19.0) |
| Norwegian-born heterosexuals | 28 (5–62) | 3.5 (1.7–6.3) | 866 (799–1001) | 138 (91–238) | 16.0% (10.7–24.0) |
| Migrant SSA-born heterosexuals | 28 (10–44) | 4.3 (1.9–8.1) | 1673 (1592–1788) | 162 (105–206) | 9.7% (6.4–12.3) |
| Migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals | 41 (6–78) | 5.4 (2.7–9.6) | 711 (598–812) | 191 (95–268) | 26.8% (15.9–34.5) |
| PWID | 12 (1–32) | 5.7 (2.7–10.0) | 257 (206–328) | 46 (12–92) | 17.9% (5.9–27.3) |
Overall: 5318 HIV diagnoses in the input data, 41% reported to be infected before migration to Norway; Norwegian-born MSM: 1332; migrant MSM: 465, 33%; Norwegian-born heterosexuals: 814; migrant SSA-born heterosexuals: 1625, 94%; migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals: 548, 78%; PWID: 414, 12%. We did not model all routes of transmission due to the low number of cases for which another known route of transmission was reported. Thus, the sum of the number of HIV diagnoses in the input data for the key subpopulations does not add up to the overall number of HIV diagnoses in the input data. See Additional file 1, Table A for a breakdown of the input data by region of birth, sex and route of transmission. Also, as estimates are done separately for each key subpopulation, the sum of the number of new infections or undiagnosed infections for the key subpopulations may differ from the corresponding estimates for the overall population. a Excludes diagnoses among persons previously diagnosed in another country who were not reported to have died or out-migrated by the end of 2018. MSM men who have sex with men, SSA Sub-Saharan Africa, PWID people who inject drugs, PLHIV people living with HIV