Table 3.
Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and AUCs of the final models*
| Model | Predict Sepsis screening tool 1 | Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 | Predict Sepsis screening tool 2 | Predict Sepsis screening tool 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Included variables and their scores |
Acute altered mental status = 1 Gastrointestinal symptoms = 1 SBP ≤ 100 = 2 GCS < 15 = 2 Temp 38.1–38.5 = 1 >38.5 = 2 Lactate> 4 = 2 |
Acute altered mental status and/or GCS < 15 = 2 Gastrointestinal symptoms = 1 SBP ≤ 100 = 2 Temp 38.1–38.5 = 1 > 38.5 = 2 Lactate> 4 = 2 |
Acute altered mental status and/or GCS < 15 = 2 Gastrointestinal symptoms = 1 SBP ≤ 100 = 2 Temp 38.1–38.5 = 1 > 38.5 = 2 |
Acute altered mental status and/or GCS < 15 = 1 Gastrointestinal symptoms = 1 SBP ≤ 100 = 2 Temp 38.1–38.5 = 1 > 38.5 = 2 Lactate> 4 = 2 |
Acute altered mental status and/or GCS < 15 = 1 Gastrointestinal symptoms = 1 SBP ≤ 100 = 2 Temp 38.1–38.5 = 1 > 38.5 = 2 |
RR > 24 = 1 SpO2 < 94 = 1 HR > 110 = 1 SBP ≤ 100 = 2 GCS <15 = 2 Temp 38.1–38.5 = 1 > 38.5 = 2 |
| Total score considered positive for suspected sepsis | ≥2 | ≥2 | ≥2 | ≥2 | ≥2 | ≥2 |
| Sensitivity (95%CI) | 0.90 (0.85–0.94) | 0.92 (0.88–0.96) | 0.92 (0.87–0.95) | 0.87 (0.82–0.92) | 0.86 (0.80–0.90) | 0.91 (0.86–0.94) |
| Specificity (95%CI) | 0.41 (0.35–0.47) | 0.27 (0.22–0.33) | 0.27 (0.22–0.33) | 0.48 (0.42–0.54) | 0.48 (0.42–0.54) | 0.38 (0.33–0.44) |
| PPV (95%CI) | 0.52 (0.47–0.58) | 0.48 (0.43.0.53) | 0.48 (0.43–0.53) | 0.55 (0.49–0.60) | 0.54 (0.49–0.60) | 0.51 (0.46–0.57) |
| NPV (95%CI) | 0.86 (0.78–0.91) | 0.84 (0.74–0.90) | 0.83 (0.73–0.89) | 0.84 (0.77–0.89) | 0.83 (0.76–0.88) | 0.85 (0.78–0.91) |
| Pos LR (95%CI) | 1.54 (1.38–1.71) | 1.27 (1.17–1.38) | 1.27 (1.17–1.38) | 1.67 (1.48–1.89) | 1.65 (1.46–1.88) | 1.47 (1.33–1.63) |
| Neg LR (95%CI) | 0.23 (0.15–0.36) | 0.27 (0.17–0.46) | 0.29 (0.18–0.48) | 0.26 (0.18–0.38) | 0.29 (0.21–0.42) | 0.24 (0.15–0.37) |
| AUC for sum of scores for the model (95%CI) | 0.77 (0.73–0.81) | 0.75 (0.70–0.79) | 0.74 (0.69–0.78) | 0.75 (0.70–0.79) | 0.74 (0.69–0.78) | 0.76 (0.72–0.81) |
PPV positive predictive value, NPV positive predictive value, LR likelihood ratio, AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval, SBP Systolic blood pressure, GCS Glasgow coma scale, Temp Temperature
*Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LRs and 95% confidence intervals for those were calculated by using www.vassarstats.net, Clinical research calculators, calculator 1
Curved text indicates a keyword related to medical history
Bold text indicates models chosen as the Predict Sepsis screening tools