Box 1. The state transition matrix associated with our simulations representing probabilities of transitioning from a true state at time t to a true state at time t + 1.

Parameters included survival (S), fidelity (F) and reported mortality (r) probability.

True state at time t	True state at time t + 1
	Alive, inside	Alive, outside	Recently dead	Dead
Alive, inside	SF	S (1 − F)	(1 − S) r	(1 − S) (1 − r)
Alive, outside	0	S	(1 − S) r	(1 − S) (1 − r)
Recently dead	0	0	0	1
Dead	0	0	0	1