Box 2. The observation matrix associated with our simulations representing the linkage between true and observed states at time t, and including parameter recapture probability (p).

True state at time t	Observed state at time t + 1
	Seen alive	Recovered dead	Not seen or recovered
Alive, inside	p	0	1 − p
Alive, outside	0	0	1
Recently dead	0	1	0
Dead	0	0	1