Fig. 14.

Comparison of curves for Liguria region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.049(-0.053,-0.044)$, this corresponds to a half-life (in days) of 14.217(13.002, 15.682). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.016(-0.023,-0.010)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 42.208(29.848, 72.036). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.032(0.028, 0.045) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 21.437(15.371, 24.575). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=2.969$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.337. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.018(-0.020,-0.017)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 37.641(34.775, 41.024)