Fig. 16.

Comparison of curves for Marche region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.074(-0.084,-0.065)$, this corresponds to a half-life (in days) of 9.304(8.256, 10.657). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.046(-0.052,-0.040)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 14.990(13.307, 17.161). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.028(0.019, 0.020) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 24.531(35.397, 35.914). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=1.611$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.621. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.036(-0.037,-0.034)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 19.519(18.515, 20.639)