Fig. 18.

Comparison of curves for P.A. Bolzano region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Top row: scaling with respect to population death tolls not presented as P. A. Bolzano is merged with P. A. Trento in deaths date provided by ISTAT. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.072(-0.084,-0.059)$, this corresponds to a half-life (in days) of 9.681(8.246, 11.720). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.061(-0.074,-0.047)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 11.385(9.321, 14.623). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.011(0.004, 0.040) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 64.662(17.302, 191.080). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=1.176$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.850. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.018(-0.019,-0.018)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 37.589(35.994, 39.332)