Fig. 21.

Comparison of curves for Puglia region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.057(-0.064,-0.050)$, this corresponds to a half-life (in days) of 12.157(10.864, 13.800). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.041(-0.050,-0.032)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 16.877(13.840, 21.622). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.016(0.010, 0.033) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 43.470(20.965, 68.915). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=1.388$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.720. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.020(-0.021,-0.019)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 34.395(33.273, 35.594)