Fig. 23.

Comparison of curves for Sicilia region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.061(-0.068,-0.053)$, this corresponds to a half-life (in days) of 11.430(10.156, 13.069). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.030(-0.038,-0.022)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 22.916(18.243, 30.808). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.030(0.022, 0.047) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 22.803(14.642, 31.528). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=2.005$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.499. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.023(-0.026,-0.021)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 29.589(26.719, 33.149)