Fig. 24.

Comparison of curves for Toscana region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.052(-0.058,-0.045)$, this corresponds to a half-life (in days) of 13.430(11.920, 15.379). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.020(-0.029,-0.011)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 34.753(23.956, 63.267). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.032(0.024, 0.059) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 21.890(11.681, 28.539). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=2.588$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.386. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.017(-0.019,-0.015)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 40.971(36.036, 47.472)