Fig. 7.

Comparison of curves for Abruzzo region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.051(-0.064,-0.039)$, this corresponds to a half-life time (in days) of 13.501(10.830, 17.923). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.030(-0.040,-0.021)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 22.801(17.203, 33.796). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.021(0.010, 0.048) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 33.105(14.398, 68.114). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=1.689$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.592. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.017(-0.019,-0.015)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 40.259(35.924, 45.784)